***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2016.-17.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 3.9 3.4 9.4 86.7 56.0 45.1 1.2 2.7 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 1.4 3.4 8.1 81.0 53.7 40.8 1.5 2.9 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 1.7 4.3 9.8 89.8 57.8 44.1 1.5 3.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.3 10.1 88.2 57.5 42.9 2.4 4.3 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.1 5.5 11.7 100.0 62.0 48.1 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 4.0 4.0 10.5 93.2 59.6 47.4 1.4 2.8 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.2 2.7 7.8 78.6 52.3 41.0 1.1 2.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 7.4 7.6 12.0 95.2 60.2 46.8 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 3.2 3.7 12.8 104.1 63.6 50.3 1.5 2.6 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 4.8 5.6 13.3 102.8 63.3 50.2 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.4 11.0 100.4 62.6 47.8 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 3.5 3.6 10.2 95.0 60.1 45.7 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 4.0 4.4 10.6 98.0 61.7 48.9 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.0 6.9 13.1 100.5 62.5 48.2 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 64 36 0 100 1.5 3.4 7.9 71.3 52.8 35.8 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 4.5 4.9 10.1 97.1 61.4 46.8 1.7 3.3 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.2 7.2 77.0 52.4 40.9 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.9 14.7 103.6 63.6 51.1 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.4 3.7 8.6 85.0 55.9 41.6 1.4 3.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.9 14.9 89.6 57.7 46.7 1.9 3.7 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.5 11.3 97.9 60.9 48.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 1.5 3.8 7.9 81.3 54.6 41.3 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.1 3.6 9.9 92.3 59.1 43.8 1.0 2.4 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 4.9 5.5 12.9 100.9 62.5 48.6 2.2 3.8 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.1 11.3 91.3 58.0 46.2 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.5 3.0 9.6 89.1 58.3 45.4 1.4 2.5 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.9 10.6 88.9 56.6 45.8 1.4 3.1 5.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.6 3.5 8.9 82.2 56.1 39.8 1.5 2.9 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.8 8.7 15.2 100.8 62.4 50.3 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.2 3.0 8.5 82.8 54.4 41.5 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------