***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2016.-24.01.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.5 8.5 8.1 101.5 63.4 49.9 2.7 5.4 9.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 9.6 7.7 114.7 68.7 53.2 2.5 5.0 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.2 11.1 8.1 101.0 63.1 49.9 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 5.0 10.6 7.7 82.2 54.9 45.2 5.3 9.2 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.5 7.9 8.2 84.9 55.8 46.3 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.2 8.2 80.6 53.1 44.6 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 2.8 8.4 7.7 114.2 68.6 53.0 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 12.2 9.3 85.3 55.4 45.8 6.0 10.5 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.4 7.5 9.0 89.6 57.5 47.6 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.4 9.6 89.3 56.9 47.6 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.9 7.4 79.4 53.0 44.3 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.5 6.8 7.5 79.0 52.7 43.4 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 8.2 6.8 7.7 78.7 52.3 44.0 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.8 15.2 10.6 105.6 64.1 51.4 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 4.0 8.8 6.5 74.7 53.4 41.6 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.2 5.4 6.9 75.3 51.1 43.1 2.9 5.2 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 2.5 8.0 7.3 114.5 68.9 54.2 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.2 11.3 97.2 60.2 50.1 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.8 11.5 8.0 113.0 67.9 52.4 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.2 13.1 94.3 59.4 48.2 4.9 8.0 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.7 8.4 92.2 58.8 47.5 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.9 7.6 114.0 68.3 54.4 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.2 10.2 8.5 109.1 66.3 51.3 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 4.6 11.6 10.1 100.6 62.1 50.5 4.4 8.1 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.7 9.8 9.5 98.4 62.1 50.1 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.6 5.3 7.9 81.8 55.0 44.3 2.5 4.6 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.2 9.3 105.3 65.0 51.5 2.6 5.0 8.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.3 6.7 74.9 51.9 42.3 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.5 15.4 12.5 100.7 61.7 50.7 6.4 11.2 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.9 9.5 7.9 111.5 67.5 52.1 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------