***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 7.6 11.2 9.2 5.1 93.2 92.4 1.7 3.8 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 6.9 9.6 8.8 4.7 91.3 90.5 1.5 3.4 5.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 9.1 12.4 9.6 5.1 92.1 91.4 2.8 5.1 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 3.7 5.6 5.0 3.6 86.3 83.2 -1.2 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 8.5 12.3 8.4 5.4 94.2 93.5 2.6 4.8 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 7.7 10.6 6.6 4.8 92.6 91.6 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 6.7 9.8 8.8 4.9 92.6 91.8 1.2 3.2 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 1.5 2.3 6.1 3.6 83.2 82.6 -2.5 -1.0 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 9.5 13.2 8.9 5.1 93.1 92.3 3.3 5.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 8.3 10.0 7.3 4.3 87.2 86.5 2.7 4.7 6.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 8.6 12.1 8.8 5.3 93.0 92.3 2.7 4.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.1 11.1 7.1 4.3 88.4 87.8 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 8.4 11.7 8.7 5.4 93.0 92.3 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 9.9 11.1 8.1 3.8 83.2 82.3 3.2 5.7 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 16 84 100 6.8 8.1 6.2 3.1 82.5 79.8 1.8 3.8 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 9.3 13.2 8.3 5.5 94.1 93.2 3.4 5.6 7.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 6.5 8.9 8.1 4.4 90.5 89.6 1.1 3.0 4.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 6.0 7.0 6.6 3.9 85.1 84.3 1.2 2.9 4.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 7.9 10.7 8.9 4.7 90.6 89.7 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 6 94 100 4.8 5.1 4.6 3.1 78.9 78.4 -0.6 1.4 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 8.9 12.7 9.8 5.3 93.8 93.1 2.8 5.0 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 7.3 9.3 8.1 4.2 88.6 87.7 1.7 3.7 5.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 7.6 9.9 8.9 4.6 89.5 88.6 1.8 3.9 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.2 8.4 4.3 87.4 86.5 3.4 5.9 8.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 6.9 9.8 8.3 5.0 93.2 92.2 1.8 3.7 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 7.5 9.5 6.6 4.4 90.0 89.4 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 8.9 12.6 8.9 5.1 93.4 92.6 2.8 5.0 7.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 8.2 9.9 5.8 3.5 83.7 80.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 5.4 6.4 5.9 3.7 83.9 83.1 -0.1 1.9 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 7.1 10.1 9.1 4.9 92.1 91.3 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------