***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 7.2 8.5 7.2 3.5 79.5 76.7 1.6 4.0 6.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 6.5 7.3 6.9 3.2 77.0 74.4 1.2 3.4 5.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 8.1 9.2 7.5 3.4 77.5 74.7 2.3 4.8 7.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 3.0 4.0 4.0 2.8 75.0 72.2 -1.6 0.6 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 27 73 100 7.4 8.7 6.0 3.4 79.1 76.0 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 6.9 8.1 5.2 3.4 80.1 76.7 1.8 3.9 6.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 6.0 7.1 6.9 3.4 78.8 76.2 0.8 3.0 5.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 1.0 1.7 5.2 3.0 76.4 73.2 -2.1 -0.6 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 8.5 9.9 6.8 3.4 78.5 75.5 2.8 5.3 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 6.8 8.0 6.0 3.3 77.4 74.1 2.0 4.2 6.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 23 77 100 7.8 9.2 6.6 3.6 80.0 76.9 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 8.1 9.4 5.8 3.2 78.6 75.5 2.5 4.9 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 7.6 9.1 6.4 3.8 81.5 78.5 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 8.5 9.2 6.9 3.0 73.9 70.6 2.7 5.4 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.7 7.4 5.2 2.6 74.1 71.8 1.6 3.9 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 20 80 100 8.4 9.9 6.2 3.8 81.3 78.1 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 5.7 6.5 6.5 3.0 75.9 73.2 0.8 3.0 5.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 4.8 5.5 5.7 3.1 75.7 72.2 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 7.2 8.0 7.0 3.2 76.4 73.8 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 4.0 4.5 4.0 2.6 73.6 70.4 -0.6 1.5 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 27 73 100 8.0 9.3 7.4 3.4 78.5 75.5 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 6.7 7.4 6.5 2.8 74.3 71.7 1.4 3.8 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 6.6 7.3 7.2 3.2 75.8 73.2 1.3 3.6 5.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 9.0 9.9 6.9 3.2 75.6 72.3 3.3 5.9 8.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 6.2 7.5 6.2 3.4 79.1 76.1 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 6.6 7.7 5.3 3.3 80.6 78.0 2.0 3.9 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 7.8 9.3 6.9 3.6 80.4 77.4 2.0 4.5 6.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 7.5 8.5 4.7 2.8 74.4 71.6 2.4 4.9 7.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 5.0 5.9 5.1 2.9 75.4 72.0 0.3 2.5 4.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 6.5 7.5 7.0 3.4 78.0 75.5 1.0 3.3 5.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------