***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 6.2 6.1 5.3 1.9 66.8 64.1 2.5 4.3 6.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 5.2 5.1 5.1 1.8 65.8 63.3 1.3 3.3 5.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 6.6 6.5 5.6 1.8 65.7 63.2 2.6 4.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 1.0 2.3 2.9 1.8 66.3 63.1 -1.6 0.4 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 5.1 6.1 3.9 1.8 65.8 62.6 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.8 5.7 3.4 1.8 65.6 62.0 2.4 4.1 5.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 4.9 4.8 5.1 1.8 66.1 63.6 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 0.7 1.4 3.5 1.5 63.7 60.4 -1.4 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 6.0 7.1 4.7 1.7 64.9 61.9 3.2 5.3 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.9 4.1 1.6 64.2 61.0 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 5.2 6.2 4.0 1.8 65.8 62.3 2.6 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.7 6.6 3.8 1.6 64.6 61.3 3.1 5.0 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.0 6.0 3.4 1.7 65.6 62.2 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 5.8 6.8 5.0 1.6 63.3 60.6 2.6 5.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 4.9 6.2 3.6 1.7 65.6 62.8 2.1 4.3 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 6.9 6.7 3.7 1.8 66.5 62.9 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 3.5 4.6 5.1 1.7 65.3 62.7 1.0 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 3.0 3.7 4.1 1.6 63.4 60.3 1.0 2.5 3.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 5.7 5.5 5.3 1.8 65.6 63.2 1.6 3.7 5.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 1.8 2.4 2.3 1.3 61.7 58.8 -0.5 1.2 2.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 5.5 6.6 5.2 1.8 65.5 62.6 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 4.2 5.3 5.1 1.6 64.6 62.4 1.5 3.5 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 5.5 5.3 5.7 1.8 65.2 62.8 1.5 3.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.4 7.4 4.9 1.6 63.9 61.0 3.3 5.6 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 4.3 5.5 4.0 1.8 66.4 63.4 2.0 3.8 5.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 6.1 5.9 3.3 1.7 66.2 62.9 2.7 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 4.8 6.1 4.8 1.9 66.7 63.8 2.3 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 7.1 7.0 3.3 1.8 66.0 62.7 2.6 4.9 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.9 3.5 1.5 62.9 59.9 0.5 2.4 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 5.1 5.0 5.1 1.8 66.0 63.6 1.2 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------