***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 5.8 6.8 7.0 3.2 84.5 80.7 2.8 4.0 5.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 5.2 6.1 6.7 3.0 82.1 78.7 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 6.6 7.6 7.4 3.2 83.5 79.4 3.4 4.7 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 2.0 2.8 4.0 2.7 80.9 76.4 -0.9 0.3 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 6.4 7.5 5.8 3.3 85.6 80.9 3.3 4.5 5.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 16 84 100 5.8 7.0 5.0 3.2 86.6 81.3 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 4.9 5.9 6.7 3.0 83.5 80.2 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 0.7 1.4 4.9 2.6 81.4 76.5 -1.4 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 7.3 8.5 6.6 3.2 84.9 80.0 4.0 5.3 6.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 6.1 7.0 5.7 2.9 83.0 78.0 3.3 4.5 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 18 82 100 6.4 7.7 6.1 3.3 85.9 81.1 3.4 4.6 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 6.7 7.7 5.5 2.9 83.7 78.9 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 6.2 7.6 5.8 3.4 87.0 82.4 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 25 75 100 7.1 7.9 6.6 2.7 79.7 75.0 3.9 5.3 6.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 6.0 6.7 4.9 2.4 78.6 74.9 2.4 3.9 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 7.0 8.4 5.8 3.4 87.0 82.3 3.9 5.2 6.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 4.7 5.5 6.5 2.8 81.5 78.0 1.7 2.9 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 4.0 4.6 5.5 2.7 81.9 76.8 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 5.6 6.5 6.9 3.0 81.7 78.0 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 3.0 3.5 3.6 2.3 79.0 74.2 0.7 1.7 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 6.7 7.9 7.2 3.3 85.1 80.6 3.6 4.9 6.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 5.5 6.2 6.5 2.7 80.1 76.6 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 5.4 6.2 7.1 3.0 81.4 77.4 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 21 79 100 7.5 8.4 6.6 2.9 82.0 77.1 4.2 5.6 6.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 5.4 6.4 5.8 3.1 84.8 80.6 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 5.7 6.7 4.9 2.9 85.5 81.1 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 13 87 100 6.5 7.6 6.6 3.2 85.2 81.3 3.2 4.5 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 6.8 7.8 4.5 2.6 80.2 75.8 3.1 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 24 76 100 3.7 4.5 4.8 2.6 81.4 76.4 1.3 2.3 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 19 81 100 5.2 6.1 6.8 3.1 82.9 79.4 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------