***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-03.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 9.5 12.0 10.0 104.7 65.8 59.2 4.5 7.8 12.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 11.7 11.0 9.4 109.2 67.1 60.1 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 10.4 10.6 7.8 82.2 56.9 51.6 5.3 8.9 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 10.4 11.3 8.9 84.4 58.4 53.5 5.1 8.9 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 10.1 8.2 7.1 64.4 48.5 43.9 5.4 8.5 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.7 7.1 6.0 65.8 49.6 43.1 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 13.5 13.4 9.8 117.8 69.6 62.8 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 13.8 16.4 13.4 119.5 64.9 58.6 7.1 11.4 16.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 7.3 6.5 7.6 73.0 52.5 47.5 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.1 9.1 75.8 52.7 47.4 4.4 7.5 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.0 6.9 6.2 58.1 44.0 39.8 4.9 8.0 11.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.9 12.0 10.0 102.3 61.2 54.7 5.4 8.9 13.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.7 6.3 5.9 53.6 40.7 35.5 4.9 8.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 12.4 12.4 10.2 83.2 56.9 51.0 6.0 10.3 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 8.6 12.6 10.1 115.2 68.3 61.3 3.5 6.9 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.7 6.4 6.7 67.2 48.9 43.0 3.8 6.7 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 8.5 12.2 9.6 114.9 68.9 61.6 3.8 7.0 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 8.5 9.5 12.4 97.5 61.3 55.6 4.2 7.0 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 8.7 10.4 8.8 100.1 64.1 57.3 4.3 7.2 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 24 76 100 16.5 20.4 25.3 180.7 80.4 74.0 5.1 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 8.5 8.2 8.0 78.9 55.6 50.5 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 7.7 10.7 9.7 109.7 67.1 60.0 3.7 6.5 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 7.4 7.9 8.2 88.3 59.6 53.2 3.7 6.2 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 10.4 9.9 8.9 77.5 54.3 49.6 5.3 8.8 13.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.6 11.9 10.3 91.9 61.0 55.2 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 89 11 100 7.7 9.4 9.7 94.1 61.8 56.5 4.1 6.9 10.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.9 12.9 10.7 106.1 66.3 59.9 4.4 7.9 12.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 8.8 9.2 7.4 81.8 57.6 51.0 4.4 7.5 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 41 59 100 18.4 18.7 17.0 130.2 69.9 63.2 5.8 10.4 16.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 8.1 10.6 9.3 105.8 65.9 59.4 3.6 6.6 10.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------