***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.01.2021.-10.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 7.9 8.3 14.5 130.0 72.7 60.3 2.3 4.2 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.5 13.2 130.6 73.0 61.3 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 12.2 13.2 15.1 132.5 73.4 60.8 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 12.4 14.9 19.3 152.9 78.2 66.0 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 12.8 14.4 17.5 139.9 75.2 64.7 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 11.2 13.0 15.6 137.8 74.7 61.4 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 8.8 9.1 12.7 126.9 72.0 60.7 2.7 4.8 7.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 15.4 17.1 17.5 134.0 73.7 62.5 4.9 8.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.1 10.4 16.0 123.5 70.6 59.3 2.8 5.3 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 12.2 13.3 17.1 131.0 72.9 62.6 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 10.6 13.1 18.4 148.0 77.3 67.0 2.5 5.1 8.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 12.7 15.0 17.3 143.0 76.2 64.4 2.7 5.8 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.3 14.7 17.7 143.6 76.3 65.4 2.9 5.9 10.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 10.9 14.0 16.8 116.5 68.3 56.9 5.1 8.6 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 11.4 15.6 20.2 173.1 81.8 68.2 2.6 5.2 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 10.9 11.4 15.8 130.3 72.4 60.7 2.5 5.2 9.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.7 12.9 128.9 72.5 61.8 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.8 15.5 113.2 66.9 56.2 2.7 5.5 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 9.9 10.5 13.7 129.9 72.7 60.6 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 14.8 16.6 23.0 136.7 74.2 63.8 3.6 7.3 12.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 11.7 12.3 16.0 130.1 72.6 61.2 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 10.0 10.7 13.9 130.2 72.8 61.8 2.9 5.4 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 10.3 10.6 14.5 125.5 71.4 59.3 3.5 5.9 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.9 11.3 15.3 114.2 67.3 55.9 3.9 6.9 10.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 11.2 13.3 18.6 150.3 77.9 67.6 3.6 6.2 9.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.8 16.2 18.2 154.9 79.2 68.0 2.1 5.0 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 9.6 10.4 15.8 137.1 74.5 63.4 2.9 5.1 8.2 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 10.3 12.8 18.2 155.6 78.3 65.6 2.3 4.8 8.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.7 16.0 17.0 117.9 68.6 57.9 4.2 8.4 14.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.6 13.7 132.9 73.6 61.7 2.7 4.9 7.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------