***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.01.2021.-17.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 1.5 4.5 10.9 101.0 63.5 50.4 1.2 2.7 4.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 4.0 5.3 10.3 108.5 66.7 53.1 1.5 2.9 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 1.7 5.1 10.8 100.9 63.3 50.4 1.5 3.1 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.5 12.6 104.7 65.0 52.5 2.4 4.3 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.7 12.6 100.4 63.1 51.2 1.9 3.7 6.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.6 5.4 12.3 115.0 68.2 54.0 1.4 2.8 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 3.5 4.6 10.2 109.1 66.9 53.1 1.1 2.4 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.9 9.1 13.7 107.3 65.3 51.5 2.5 5.2 9.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.5 3.5 12.9 96.8 61.3 49.9 1.5 2.6 4.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.1 5.5 13.7 101.8 63.1 51.1 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 1.6 4.6 12.5 103.6 64.0 51.0 1.4 2.8 4.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 1.5 4.3 12.4 110.2 66.3 51.5 1.3 2.5 4.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 1.8 5.2 13.1 112.6 67.2 52.7 1.7 3.1 5.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.7 6.7 13.2 98.8 62.0 51.1 2.4 4.5 7.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.7 5.1 11.3 102.5 65.2 50.5 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.9 5.4 11.9 103.7 64.1 50.6 1.7 3.3 5.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 3.9 4.9 10.3 111.0 67.8 54.4 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.8 14.1 101.8 63.1 51.4 2.1 3.9 6.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 4.2 5.3 10.4 106.7 65.7 52.3 1.4 3.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.1 6.3 17.8 105.5 64.9 52.6 1.9 3.7 6.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 1.9 4.7 12.1 98.2 61.9 50.0 1.9 3.3 5.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 4.5 5.9 10.7 109.8 67.2 54.5 1.6 3.3 5.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.3 4.3 10.7 103.2 63.8 51.4 1.0 2.4 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 2.3 5.4 12.6 98.8 61.9 50.3 2.2 3.8 6.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 4.4 5.0 12.7 101.1 63.4 51.5 1.4 3.0 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 3.1 4.0 12.9 117.9 69.1 53.1 1.4 2.5 3.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.7 5.0 11.6 101.5 63.6 51.1 1.4 3.1 5.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.6 4.7 11.5 104.2 65.0 51.5 1.5 2.9 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 9.0 15.1 103.1 63.6 51.6 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 3.6 4.6 10.4 105.8 65.6 52.1 1.1 2.5 4.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------