***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.01.2021.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.4 10.8 11.9 124.8 71.2 56.3 2.7 5.4 9.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.0 10.4 11.0 124.1 71.1 57.0 2.5 5.0 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.8 10.5 114.1 67.6 53.5 3.8 7.3 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 5.1 14.3 11.2 107.3 65.8 52.4 5.3 9.2 14.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 3.4 9.9 10.4 99.0 62.4 51.4 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.2 9.5 90.8 59.1 47.2 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 8.9 9.2 11.1 125.6 71.6 57.8 2.7 4.9 7.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 13.7 14.6 11.5 97.9 61.6 50.4 6.0 10.5 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.3 8.6 10.8 98.6 61.7 51.1 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.3 11.2 96.7 60.8 50.8 4.2 7.0 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.6 9.8 95.8 60.9 50.6 3.6 6.3 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.7 8.5 9.7 94.5 60.2 49.1 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.9 9.6 89.8 57.7 47.6 3.8 6.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 12.6 14.2 11.9 99.8 62.1 50.8 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.1 13.6 11.0 109.7 67.3 50.1 4.1 7.8 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.9 9.2 91.7 58.9 48.0 2.9 5.2 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 8.4 8.5 11.1 124.0 71.1 57.7 2.3 4.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.6 9.5 12.0 98.4 61.4 51.1 4.4 7.1 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.9 12.0 10.5 118.2 69.1 55.2 3.6 6.7 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 10.0 11.4 16.8 103.1 63.7 52.4 4.9 8.0 12.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.5 10.8 106.3 64.7 52.5 3.5 6.5 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.4 9.9 10.8 115.7 68.5 55.7 3.1 5.6 9.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.8 10.0 107.0 65.1 52.4 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.7 11.7 11.1 100.7 62.4 50.8 4.4 8.1 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.1 12.8 13.2 120.4 70.0 56.7 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.6 6.3 10.1 96.0 61.1 49.8 2.5 4.6 7.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 6.9 10.2 12.8 125.6 71.4 57.2 2.6 5.0 8.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.1 9.0 9.6 99.5 63.3 49.1 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 15.6 13.4 100.1 62.3 51.7 6.4 11.2 17.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.3 10.8 11.0 123.7 70.9 56.6 2.5 5.2 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------