***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.12.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.12.2020.-24.01.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 37.7 36.2 47.2 115.3 67.1 61.9 18.4 26.3 35.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 37.7 36.6 43.9 118.4 68.6 62.7 15.7 24.2 34.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 38.4 42.8 44.2 108.4 62.9 58.2 25.3 34.6 45.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 41.4 47.7 52.0 113.9 66.1 60.5 26.9 36.7 47.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 38.2 39.4 47.6 102.1 58.8 55.4 26.4 34.7 43.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 31.5 33.2 43.3 104.2 60.3 55.5 20.4 27.8 36.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 37.6 37.0 43.8 120.0 69.4 63.3 16.4 24.7 34.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 52.2 59.5 56.1 114.1 65.8 59.9 34.4 46.3 59.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.8 29.5 47.3 99.3 56.6 53.6 19.6 26.6 34.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 35.4 36.4 51.1 102.1 58.5 54.8 23.2 31.7 41.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 33.5 34.7 46.9 103.6 59.7 55.9 23.4 30.3 37.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 44.4 41.4 49.5 113.5 65.9 60.0 22.5 31.4 41.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 35.5 36.0 46.3 101.3 57.6 54.0 24.6 32.2 40.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 49.1 49.7 52.1 100.3 57.2 54.0 35.9 45.2 55.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 46.9 48.3 52.6 126.9 72.0 64.0 19.0 29.4 42.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 32.3 32.1 43.6 99.7 56.9 53.5 21.7 28.9 37.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 35.8 35.9 43.9 120.0 69.5 63.8 15.0 23.2 33.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 33.6 35.1 54.0 103.1 59.0 55.4 22.0 30.0 39.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 40.0 38.6 43.4 114.3 66.4 61.3 20.7 28.9 38.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 51.2 54.2 82.8 128.3 73.0 66.8 26.2 36.4 47.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 34.2 36.3 46.9 104.4 60.3 56.4 23.0 30.8 39.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 38.0 37.3 45.0 116.9 67.9 63.6 16.4 25.1 35.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 30.7 33.8 43.5 107.0 62.2 58.0 19.8 27.5 36.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 41.5 41.3 47.9 98.6 56.0 52.7 32.0 38.8 45.9 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 44.5 44.1 54.7 116.3 67.7 62.8 23.6 32.6 42.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 37.8 35.4 50.9 117.0 68.2 61.8 17.5 25.2 33.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 39.8 39.6 50.9 117.7 68.5 63.4 19.9 28.1 37.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 31.8 36.6 46.7 112.7 65.2 59.4 19.3 27.4 37.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 54.4 61.6 62.5 112.0 64.7 60.0 38.0 49.8 62.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 36.9 36.5 44.3 117.4 68.1 62.3 18.1 25.9 35.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------