***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 -5.1 -6.5 -5.4 -3.4 17.1 26.7 -4.2 -2.1 -0.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 -5.9 -6.4 -5.1 -2.5 25.3 34.2 -5.3 -3.2 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 -4.1 -5.5 -5.8 -3.4 16.5 26.5 -3.0 -0.9 1.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 75 25 0 100 -9.4 -11.1 -8.9 -4.0 13.8 21.0 -7.9 -5.8 -3.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 -6.8 -7.8 -8.1 -3.7 16.6 23.4 -5.5 -3.6 -1.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 -8.2 -8.7 -9.1 -3.4 18.8 25.4 -6.7 -4.6 -2.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 -5.3 -5.7 -4.9 -2.4 27.0 35.6 -4.9 -2.8 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 -9.7 -10.3 -9.0 -3.7 19.2 24.4 -8.7 -7.1 -5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 -6.5 -7.2 -6.9 -3.3 19.6 26.7 -5.1 -2.9 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 71 29 0 100 -6.8 -7.4 -8.2 -3.5 19.8 25.8 -5.6 -3.6 -1.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 77 23 0 100 -7.6 -8.8 -8.7 -4.0 15.5 21.7 -6.1 -4.0 -2.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 -8.7 -9.8 -9.2 -4.3 14.9 20.6 -7.0 -4.9 -2.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 -8.4 -9.7 -9.0 -4.0 15.6 21.7 -6.8 -4.5 -2.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 66 34 0 100 -5.2 -6.0 -7.0 -3.1 20.1 28.3 -4.3 -2.4 -0.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 -6.9 -8.5 -8.6 -4.2 13.1 20.8 -5.5 -3.5 -1.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 -6.5 -7.6 -9.2 -4.1 14.8 21.2 -5.0 -3.1 -1.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -5.2 -4.2 -1.6 34.3 41.1 -5.4 -3.3 -1.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 -8.9 -9.4 -8.5 -3.3 21.9 27.9 -7.8 -5.8 -3.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 -5.7 -6.6 -5.5 -2.8 22.2 31.7 -5.0 -2.9 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -11.5 -11.4 -8.5 -2.2 30.4 34.9 -11.0 -8.4 -5.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 -6.3 -7.5 -6.1 -3.3 17.8 26.3 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 -2.4 -5.2 -4.5 -1.8 32.9 40.4 -5.2 -3.2 -1.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 -6.2 -7.2 -6.0 -3.1 19.0 28.7 -5.2 -3.2 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 -6.1 -6.8 -7.3 -3.4 18.4 26.4 -4.9 -3.2 -1.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 74 26 0 100 -6.1 -7.3 -7.6 -3.7 15.0 23.1 -4.8 -2.9 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 -7.9 -8.8 -8.6 -3.9 16.2 21.5 -6.2 -4.1 -2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 -6.0 -7.7 -6.3 -3.5 16.7 25.9 -4.8 -2.3 0.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 -8.1 -9.6 -8.8 -4.1 14.0 21.4 -6.6 -4.5 -2.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 -7.9 -8.1 -8.5 -2.8 25.4 30.5 -7.0 -4.9 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 -5.8 -6.8 -5.4 -2.9 21.2 30.9 -5.0 -2.7 -0.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------