***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 -3.9 -4.4 -5.1 -2.8 16.9 24.6 -3.3 -2.3 -1.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 -4.6 -4.8 -5.0 -2.2 24.8 31.1 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 74 26 0 100 -2.7 -3.1 -5.4 -2.8 17.2 24.7 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 -8.0 -8.8 -8.3 -3.1 14.8 21.2 -7.1 -5.9 -4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 -4.8 -5.4 -7.6 -3.0 15.3 21.9 -4.1 -3.2 -2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 -5.7 -6.1 -8.8 -2.7 17.9 24.1 -5.1 -4.1 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -4.7 -4.9 -2.1 25.7 32.2 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 79 21 0 100 -8.8 -9.4 -8.8 -3.2 14.8 20.3 -8.2 -7.3 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 71 29 0 100 -4.2 -4.8 -6.6 -2.8 16.9 24.2 -3.5 -2.4 -1.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 -4.7 -5.3 -8.0 -3.1 16.4 22.6 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 -5.2 -5.9 -8.0 -3.2 14.7 20.7 -4.4 -3.3 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 -6.1 -6.7 -8.6 -3.5 13.1 18.7 -5.1 -4.1 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 -5.6 -6.3 -8.5 -3.2 14.4 20.1 -4.7 -3.6 -2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 -3.7 -4.4 -7.0 -2.9 17.0 23.6 -3.2 -2.2 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 -5.0 -5.7 -7.7 -3.0 15.8 23.1 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 -4.3 -4.8 -8.5 -3.2 14.5 20.5 -3.5 -2.5 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 -4.7 -4.4 -4.5 -1.6 31.4 36.5 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 -6.9 -7.5 -8.6 -3.0 17.7 23.5 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 -4.4 -4.7 -5.2 -2.3 22.7 29.4 -3.9 -2.9 -1.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 -9.9 -10.3 -9.3 -2.6 20.5 25.5 -9.2 -7.9 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 75 25 0 100 -4.5 -5.0 -5.8 -2.9 16.5 24.0 -3.7 -2.7 -1.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 -4.7 -4.5 -4.6 -1.7 30.1 35.5 -4.3 -3.2 -2.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 -4.6 -5.0 -5.6 -2.5 19.9 27.1 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 72 28 0 100 -4.7 -5.2 -7.1 -2.9 16.9 23.4 -4.0 -3.0 -2.1 28 Valjevo 28500G11 75 25 0 100 -4.3 -5.0 -7.0 -3.0 15.0 22.2 -3.6 -2.7 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 86 14 0 100 -5.5 -6.1 -8.3 -3.3 13.8 18.7 -4.5 -3.5 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 74 26 0 100 -4.5 -5.2 -5.9 -2.9 16.4 24.1 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 -5.9 -6.6 -8.0 -3.0 15.8 22.3 -5.2 -4.0 -3.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 -6.6 -6.9 -8.9 -2.7 19.2 24.4 -6.0 -5.0 -4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 -4.5 -4.9 -5.1 -2.4 21.5 28.5 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------