***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 5.4 1.3 1.4 -2.0 28.2 36.2 2.0 4.4 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 0.7 1.2 1.2 -1.6 33.0 40.3 1.2 3.6 5.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 6.0 2.0 1.8 -1.8 30.9 38.6 2.3 4.9 7.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.6 -1.8 0.0 -1.7 30.1 36.9 -1.4 0.7 2.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.5 1.8 0.7 -1.6 32.0 38.5 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.3 2.3 0.8 -1.2 36.9 42.9 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.2 0.9 1.2 -1.6 33.1 40.2 0.9 3.2 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -1.5 0.8 -1.3 35.2 41.6 -1.7 -0.3 1.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.5 3.0 1.7 -1.5 34.2 40.5 2.8 5.5 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 2.4 1.5 -1.2 36.2 42.4 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.8 2.2 0.8 -1.5 33.1 39.3 2.1 4.6 7.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.0 2.4 0.7 -1.6 31.7 38.4 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.5 1.8 0.4 -1.6 31.3 37.9 2.1 4.5 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 6.5 3.7 2.3 -1.0 39.2 45.1 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.2 0.2 -1.7 30.2 36.7 1.6 4.0 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.2 2.5 0.5 -1.5 32.3 38.6 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.0 1.7 1.6 -1.0 39.1 44.5 0.8 3.1 5.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.3 1.4 1.7 -1.0 39.3 45.1 0.7 2.5 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.0 1.4 1.4 -1.6 32.9 40.4 1.4 4.0 6.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 -0.9 0.2 0.2 -1.0 38.2 44.1 -0.4 1.7 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.0 2.2 1.7 -1.7 31.6 38.6 2.4 5.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 4.9 2.4 1.9 -1.0 40.0 45.4 1.4 3.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.7 1.4 1.9 -1.5 34.2 41.4 1.2 3.6 5.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.1 4.2 2.2 -1.1 37.8 44.0 3.4 6.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 4.6 1.0 0.5 -1.8 29.8 37.2 1.5 3.7 5.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 1.6 1.7 0.2 -1.7 29.3 36.4 2.2 4.1 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 5.7 1.5 1.0 -1.9 29.3 36.9 2.1 4.6 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.1 2.2 0.2 -1.6 31.2 37.6 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.8 1.4 1.1 -1.0 39.2 44.9 0.6 2.8 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 0.7 0.7 1.2 -1.9 30.6 38.4 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------