***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.1 4.1 2.8 -0.1 48.8 49.2 2.5 4.3 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 4.2 3.3 2.6 0.0 50.1 50.3 1.3 3.3 5.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 5.5 4.7 3.1 0.0 50.0 49.9 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 1.3 0.4 1.0 0.0 50.1 50.0 -1.8 0.4 2.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.3 4.5 1.7 0.0 50.4 50.1 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.0 4.6 1.3 0.3 53.3 52.9 2.6 4.3 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 3.7 2.8 2.5 0.0 49.8 50.3 0.9 2.9 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.8 0.4 1.6 0.2 52.3 51.9 -1.4 0.2 1.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.5 2.6 0.1 51.3 50.8 3.2 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.6 2.2 0.2 52.4 51.8 2.5 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.6 1.7 0.1 50.7 50.7 2.7 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 5.9 5.1 1.6 0.0 49.9 50.3 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.3 1.3 0.0 49.7 50.5 2.5 4.3 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.1 5.5 3.1 0.3 53.0 52.3 2.7 5.1 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.4 1.3 0.1 51.5 51.1 2.1 4.2 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.0 1.4 0.0 50.4 50.7 3.1 4.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.1 2.7 0.2 51.8 51.6 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.3 3.0 2.3 0.4 53.6 52.8 1.1 2.7 4.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.7 2.9 0.0 50.2 50.2 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.4 54.4 53.4 -0.4 1.4 3.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 2.5 4.9 2.8 0.0 50.4 50.1 2.9 4.8 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 4.4 3.7 3.0 0.2 52.2 51.6 1.4 3.5 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.3 3.6 3.2 0.1 50.7 50.5 1.6 3.5 5.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.8 3.0 0.3 52.5 51.9 3.3 5.5 7.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.8 1.6 0.0 49.7 49.8 2.1 3.8 5.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.2 1.1 -0.2 48.1 49.6 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.0 4.1 2.2 -0.1 49.0 49.6 2.3 4.2 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.8 4.9 1.3 0.1 51.0 50.6 2.5 4.8 7.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 3.2 2.9 1.7 0.4 54.3 53.4 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 4.0 3.1 2.7 -0.1 49.5 49.9 1.2 3.2 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------