***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 4.2 3.9 3.9 0.5 54.3 54.6 1.8 3.5 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 3.9 3.5 3.6 0.5 54.1 54.5 1.5 3.1 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.7 4.1 0.4 54.1 54.3 2.3 4.2 6.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 0.1 -0.5 1.7 0.1 51.3 52.2 -3.0 -0.7 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.5 2.4 0.2 51.9 52.4 2.6 4.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.1 1.8 0.2 51.6 52.0 2.2 3.9 5.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 3.5 3.2 3.5 0.5 54.2 54.7 1.1 2.8 4.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.2 -0.9 1.9 0.0 50.1 50.8 -2.6 -0.9 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.3 3.4 0.3 52.8 53.0 3.0 5.0 6.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.5 2.7 0.2 51.6 52.0 2.5 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.6 2.3 0.1 51.2 51.8 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 5.4 4.7 2.1 0.0 50.0 50.7 2.8 4.7 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.5 1.9 0.0 50.3 50.9 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 3.8 0.3 53.0 53.2 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 4.2 3.6 1.8 0.1 50.7 51.7 1.4 3.5 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.2 2.0 0.1 51.0 51.7 3.1 5.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 3.4 3.2 3.6 0.5 54.2 54.5 1.2 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 3.7 3.2 2.7 0.2 51.8 52.1 1.6 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.2 3.9 3.9 0.5 54.1 54.4 1.6 3.4 5.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 3.0 2.2 0.9 0.0 49.7 50.4 0.4 2.3 4.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.9 3.8 0.4 53.7 53.8 2.6 4.5 6.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.9 3.9 0.5 54.4 54.5 1.7 3.5 5.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 1.2 3.7 4.1 0.4 54.1 54.2 1.6 3.3 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.0 3.7 0.3 53.0 53.2 2.7 4.7 6.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.9 3.6 2.5 0.4 53.5 53.8 1.7 3.3 4.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.3 1.6 -0.1 49.2 49.9 2.8 4.4 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.5 3.2 0.4 54.1 54.3 2.3 4.1 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.3 1.9 0.1 50.8 51.8 1.9 4.2 6.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.0 2.4 2.0 0.1 51.0 51.5 0.2 2.2 4.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 3.8 3.4 3.8 0.5 54.2 54.6 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------