***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.12.2014.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 65 35 0 100 2.2 1.8 1.0 -2.4 21.4 27.2 2.7 3.9 5.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.7 1.4 0.8 -2.1 25.5 30.9 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 2.8 2.5 1.2 -2.3 22.8 28.5 3.4 4.7 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 -1.6 -2.1 -0.8 -2.2 20.6 26.3 -1.0 0.3 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 2.7 2.2 -0.1 -2.3 20.8 26.3 3.2 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 2.4 2.0 -0.5 -2.2 19.7 26.0 3.0 4.2 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 1.4 1.1 0.8 -2.1 25.7 31.0 1.7 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 -2.0 -2.5 -0.4 -2.3 18.8 24.6 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.6 3.1 0.8 -2.1 22.9 28.3 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 2.8 2.3 0.3 -2.2 20.9 26.5 3.3 4.4 5.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.8 2.3 -0.1 -2.3 20.2 25.5 3.4 4.6 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.2 2.6 -0.3 -2.4 18.2 23.7 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 2.5 2.0 -0.5 -2.5 17.3 23.0 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.2 1.3 -2.0 25.6 30.5 3.9 5.2 6.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 1.8 1.3 -0.3 -2.0 22.3 28.1 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.2 2.7 -0.5 -2.3 19.1 24.7 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.5 1.4 1.0 -1.7 29.7 34.4 1.7 2.9 4.1 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 1.6 1.3 0.3 -2.2 21.6 27.1 1.9 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.1 1.8 1.0 -2.2 25.1 30.6 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 0.1 -0.4 -1.3 -2.3 17.6 23.8 0.7 1.7 2.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 3.0 2.6 1.1 -2.2 22.5 27.9 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 2.1 2.1 1.2 -1.7 29.5 34.3 2.3 3.7 4.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 1.9 1.7 1.2 -2.1 25.1 30.6 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.6 3.3 1.2 -2.1 23.8 29.1 4.1 5.5 6.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 1.8 1.4 -0.1 -2.2 20.7 26.4 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 2.6 2.0 -0.8 -2.5 16.0 21.8 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.1 0.5 -2.3 21.2 26.9 3.1 4.4 5.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.5 1.9 -0.5 -2.1 21.5 27.2 3.2 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 65 35 0 100 0.8 0.4 -0.3 -2.2 20.9 26.4 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.5 1.2 0.8 -2.3 23.6 29.3 2.0 3.3 4.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------