***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.01.2015.-11.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 2.2 4.8 7.3 90.9 58.8 47.9 2.2 3.8 5.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.0 7.7 95.3 61.6 48.9 2.6 4.9 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.1 7.5 92.7 59.4 48.3 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.8 7.0 83.0 56.2 44.6 3.0 5.6 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.4 8.3 7.9 91.8 59.5 47.8 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.7 8.4 93.1 61.6 48.3 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.0 7.7 95.0 61.6 48.9 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.3 9.4 95.8 61.6 48.8 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.4 6.1 8.5 92.1 59.1 48.1 2.3 4.5 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.4 7.1 9.3 94.6 60.5 48.5 2.1 4.7 8.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.2 6.6 7.9 94.3 60.7 48.1 2.0 4.4 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.3 8.4 97.5 62.3 49.4 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.8 8.3 94.8 61.6 48.8 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 4.7 9.7 9.6 91.0 58.5 47.5 4.6 7.7 11.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.0 5.3 6.0 70.9 51.5 40.7 2.6 5.1 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.1 6.1 7.7 93.4 60.9 48.2 1.7 3.9 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.3 8.1 7.7 97.2 62.4 49.4 3.1 5.5 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 2.7 6.9 10.5 96.4 61.1 49.0 2.5 4.8 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.1 7.3 7.8 94.3 60.7 48.6 3.2 5.4 8.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 9.6 12.3 93.2 60.8 48.6 3.1 6.4 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.2 7.2 7.6 92.1 59.5 48.8 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.9 8.4 98.0 62.5 50.3 3.0 5.5 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.5 7.3 8.2 92.8 59.7 48.2 3.3 5.7 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.7 8.1 9.3 95.2 60.3 48.7 3.6 6.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.0 6.9 8.0 90.1 58.7 47.8 2.9 5.2 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.3 8.6 97.3 62.9 49.0 1.9 4.3 8.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 2.1 5.4 8.1 90.8 59.0 48.1 2.1 4.0 6.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 2.5 5.2 6.6 78.7 55.1 43.1 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 4.1 10.8 11.5 97.1 61.7 49.5 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 2.3 6.2 7.5 93.4 60.5 48.2 2.3 4.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------