***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.01.2015.-18.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.3 8.7 80.5 52.3 41.9 1.4 3.0 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 1.4 4.1 9.4 98.9 60.4 46.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 1.7 4.1 9.3 84.5 53.6 42.4 1.6 3.6 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.7 5.0 9.5 73.5 50.0 40.1 2.8 5.0 7.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.5 10.2 79.8 52.7 42.7 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.5 3.2 9.9 77.1 52.2 43.7 1.5 2.9 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.3 3.6 9.3 97.7 59.9 46.7 1.4 2.6 4.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.1 8.8 11.6 87.1 56.3 45.8 4.0 7.3 11.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 1.8 3.4 10.9 83.6 53.5 43.5 1.7 3.1 4.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.6 11.9 88.2 56.1 45.8 2.7 4.7 7.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.4 9.9 83.2 54.4 44.3 2.1 3.8 6.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 1.8 3.6 9.9 84.1 55.1 44.5 1.7 3.0 4.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.0 4.0 9.8 80.0 53.3 43.5 1.9 3.6 5.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.2 6.8 12.1 91.3 57.0 46.1 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 1.5 2.9 8.8 68.0 49.0 38.2 1.5 2.9 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.1 4.1 9.3 78.1 52.4 42.9 1.9 3.8 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 1.3 3.9 9.6 106.0 64.0 49.2 1.3 2.6 4.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.0 13.3 91.9 58.0 47.5 2.6 4.8 7.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 1.4 4.2 9.5 96.3 59.4 46.0 1.3 3.0 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.6 5.7 14.9 88.5 57.3 46.7 2.7 4.7 7.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.3 9.7 80.2 51.8 42.0 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 1.8 5.0 9.9 102.9 62.6 48.9 1.8 3.4 5.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 1.5 4.0 10.1 92.9 58.0 45.5 1.5 3.0 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.9 5.5 11.8 89.6 56.2 45.5 2.9 4.7 7.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 1.6 3.4 10.0 77.9 50.9 41.3 1.4 3.2 6.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.5 2.9 9.8 80.1 53.7 44.1 1.5 2.6 4.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.6 9.7 80.9 52.2 42.3 1.6 3.3 6.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.2 9.1 71.5 50.2 40.2 1.7 3.1 5.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 4.7 9.7 14.1 92.7 58.4 47.9 4.5 7.7 11.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.0 3.2 9.2 93.0 57.5 44.8 1.0 2.3 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------