***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.12.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.01.2015.-25.01.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.5 9.9 103.3 64.3 49.1 2.5 5.2 9.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.7 8.7 9.6 104.7 65.1 49.4 2.5 5.2 9.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.2 11.6 9.9 101.9 63.5 49.1 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.4 12.0 9.3 95.7 61.0 48.5 5.1 8.9 13.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 8.1 7.9 9.4 92.6 59.2 47.9 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.3 8.0 82.5 54.8 46.3 2.9 5.4 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 2.9 7.5 9.2 100.8 63.6 49.3 2.6 4.9 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.6 10.4 94.1 59.8 48.8 5.3 9.5 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.3 7.6 10.1 94.1 59.9 48.6 2.9 5.5 9.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.1 8.5 10.8 95.0 60.0 48.8 3.8 6.5 10.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.3 6.7 8.5 86.6 56.0 45.5 3.1 5.6 9.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.4 8.4 87.9 57.3 47.5 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 7.2 6.5 8.1 84.0 55.3 47.2 3.1 5.5 8.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.5 15.1 11.7 101.8 62.8 49.6 5.6 10.4 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.7 12.1 8.7 97.6 62.9 48.8 3.4 7.4 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.5 5.3 7.8 83.5 54.9 45.2 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.7 9.1 103.9 65.1 50.9 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.2 8.8 12.3 98.2 61.3 49.7 4.0 6.6 10.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 3.5 10.6 9.8 105.4 65.1 49.2 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.3 10.8 14.7 103.5 64.0 52.2 4.1 7.2 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.9 8.6 9.8 95.7 60.6 48.5 3.2 6.1 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.3 9.4 9.6 109.6 66.9 51.2 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 3.8 9.8 10.0 102.8 63.8 48.8 3.5 6.4 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.7 11.3 98.8 61.6 49.0 5.4 9.3 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.9 10.7 99.9 62.7 49.2 3.1 6.3 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.5 8.0 85.0 56.8 48.5 2.1 4.3 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.9 8.4 10.7 102.0 63.7 49.2 2.4 5.0 9.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.9 7.5 8.4 92.8 60.2 47.9 2.4 5.1 9.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.8 15.5 13.5 102.0 62.9 50.7 6.3 10.8 16.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.1 9.8 104.4 64.7 48.8 2.5 5.4 9.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------