***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 9999.0 0.9 1.3 3.7 79.4 78.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 -0.2 0.1 0.9 3.9 79.2 78.6 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 3 97 100 1.8 2.1 1.0 3.7 79.4 78.9 -2.6 -1.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 -2.7 -2.0 -1.6 3.5 81.7 81.2 -7.7 -5.8 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 -0.5 -0.4 -1.0 3.2 77.9 77.4 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 -1.1 0.3 -2.0 4.0 86.9 86.4 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 0.0 0.3 1.1 4.0 79.6 79.1 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 4 96 100 -4.8 -4.0 -1.6 4.0 83.0 82.3 -9.2 -7.5 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 4 96 100 0.5 0.7 -0.3 3.3 78.5 78.0 -4.2 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 4 96 100 -0.6 -0.2 -1.2 3.8 81.0 80.4 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 3 97 100 -0.5 -0.2 -1.0 3.4 80.2 79.7 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 4 96 100 -1.0 -0.4 -1.2 3.5 80.9 80.3 -5.7 -3.9 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 -0.3 0.1 -1.5 3.1 80.0 79.3 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 0.4 0.8 -0.1 3.9 80.8 80.4 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 1 99 100 0.1 0.8 -0.5 3.5 82.7 82.1 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 2 98 100 0.2 0.6 -1.3 3.4 81.2 80.7 -4.0 -2.4 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.6 3.8 77.7 77.2 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 3 97 100 -2.3 -1.6 -1.7 4.2 82.5 81.9 -7.0 -5.3 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 0.0 0.3 0.8 3.8 79.3 78.7 -4.7 -3.0 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 3 97 100 -3.8 -2.4 -3.0 4.5 84.6 83.8 -9.9 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 0.2 0.3 0.5 3.2 77.2 76.8 -4.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 8 92 100 -0.5 -0.4 0.5 3.5 76.4 75.9 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 -0.5 -0.1 0.5 3.8 80.1 79.5 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 -0.5 0.1 -0.4 3.9 81.2 80.7 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 -0.1 0.5 0.1 3.7 81.7 81.1 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 4 96 100 -0.8 0.0 -1.3 3.2 83.0 82.2 -5.2 -3.5 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 0.7 1.1 0.7 3.7 79.8 79.2 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 -1.1 -0.6 -1.1 3.4 81.3 80.9 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 -2.2 -1.0 -2.2 4.7 85.3 84.6 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 4 96 100 0.3 0.7 1.2 3.9 79.8 79.2 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------