***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 9999.0 -0.5 0.2 3.0 80.6 79.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 -1.2 -0.8 -0.2 3.0 79.8 78.3 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 10 90 100 0.6 1.0 -0.1 3.0 80.8 79.4 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 10 90 100 -4.1 -3.6 -2.9 2.9 81.5 79.8 -7.2 -6.0 -4.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 -1.7 -1.3 -2.2 3.0 81.4 79.8 -4.2 -3.2 -2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 -2.6 -1.8 -3.5 3.3 85.5 83.3 -5.1 -4.2 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 12 88 100 -1.1 -0.7 -0.1 3.0 79.8 78.3 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 -5.9 -5.2 -2.9 3.3 84.2 82.2 -8.2 -7.3 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 9 91 100 -0.8 -0.4 -1.3 3.0 81.3 79.6 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 -1.6 -1.0 -2.4 3.2 82.8 80.9 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 -1.6 -1.0 -2.2 3.2 83.2 81.6 -4.4 -3.3 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 -2.4 -1.7 -2.4 3.3 83.9 82.2 -5.1 -4.1 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 5 95 100 -1.8 -1.1 -2.7 3.2 84.0 82.1 -4.7 -3.6 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 15 85 100 -0.8 -0.2 -1.5 3.0 81.7 79.7 -3.2 -2.2 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 -1.2 -0.8 -2.3 2.8 80.0 78.3 -4.2 -3.1 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 -1.0 -0.5 -2.6 3.2 83.6 81.9 -3.5 -2.6 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 -1.5 -1.2 -0.3 2.9 78.3 76.8 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 13 87 100 -3.4 -2.6 -2.9 3.3 83.3 81.2 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 10 90 100 -1.2 -0.8 -0.3 3.0 80.2 78.7 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 -6.0 -5.0 -4.2 3.2 84.6 82.2 -9.3 -8.0 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 -1.1 -0.7 -0.5 2.9 80.5 79.0 -3.8 -2.7 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 -1.5 -1.3 -0.4 2.7 77.8 76.3 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 10 90 100 -1.4 -0.9 -0.5 3.0 80.9 79.4 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 13 87 100 -1.6 -1.0 -1.6 3.1 82.2 80.4 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 -1.2 -0.7 -1.5 3.1 82.4 80.7 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 8 92 100 -1.8 -1.1 -2.4 3.1 85.0 83.0 -4.6 -3.5 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 -0.7 -0.2 -0.5 3.0 81.3 79.7 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 11 89 100 -2.4 -1.9 -2.6 2.9 80.8 79.1 -5.2 -4.1 -3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 -3.6 -2.8 -3.4 3.4 85.1 82.5 -6.0 -5.1 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 -0.8 -0.4 0.0 3.0 80.3 78.8 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------