***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 8.3 6.0 3.2 76.7 73.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 6.8 7.6 5.8 3.3 75.5 73.0 1.2 3.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 8.2 9.1 6.1 3.1 75.5 72.6 2.3 4.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 3.2 3.8 3.2 2.4 72.0 69.5 -1.1 1.0 2.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 7.4 8.0 4.1 2.6 73.5 70.4 2.0 4.5 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 6.7 7.7 3.9 2.9 76.7 73.1 1.9 4.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 6.3 7.1 5.7 3.4 76.2 73.7 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 1.6 2.1 3.8 2.4 73.6 70.6 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.5 9.4 5.1 2.7 73.9 70.6 2.8 5.5 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.8 7.7 4.5 2.6 73.5 70.3 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 7.8 8.7 4.3 2.8 75.6 72.1 2.2 4.7 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 8.0 9.2 4.3 2.8 76.3 73.0 2.5 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 7.4 8.8 4.3 3.1 78.3 74.7 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 41 59 100 8.4 9.6 5.6 2.8 73.6 70.2 2.7 5.5 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 6.9 7.1 3.2 2.2 70.9 68.8 1.8 4.2 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 8.2 9.4 4.1 2.9 76.8 73.1 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 5.9 6.7 5.4 3.2 74.5 72.0 0.8 3.1 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 4.5 5.2 4.4 2.5 72.9 69.9 0.8 2.6 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 7.3 8.2 5.9 3.2 75.1 72.4 1.4 4.1 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 3.7 4.3 2.6 2.0 70.9 68.6 -0.4 1.7 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 8.0 8.9 5.6 2.9 74.8 71.6 2.5 5.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 6.8 7.5 5.5 2.9 73.1 70.4 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 6.5 7.4 6.0 3.1 74.6 71.7 1.2 3.7 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 9.0 10.0 5.5 2.8 74.0 70.8 3.4 6.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 6.5 7.3 4.3 2.8 75.3 72.4 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 6.5 7.6 4.0 2.9 78.2 75.1 2.2 4.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 7.8 8.8 5.3 3.1 76.8 73.9 2.1 4.6 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 36 64 100 7.8 8.3 3.4 2.4 72.0 69.4 2.6 5.1 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 5.3 6.0 3.8 2.4 72.7 70.0 0.7 2.9 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 6.7 7.6 5.9 3.4 76.0 73.5 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------