***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 43 57 100 9999.0 4.4 5.3 2.2 68.8 64.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 5.2 5.2 5.2 2.3 68.5 65.1 1.5 3.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 6.5 6.5 5.5 2.2 68.3 64.4 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 1.6 1.8 3.2 2.2 69.3 65.0 -3.0 -0.8 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 6.5 6.6 3.9 2.2 69.2 64.8 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 5.7 5.5 2.9 1.7 65.7 62.2 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 4.8 4.8 5.1 2.3 68.8 65.5 1.1 2.9 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 0.7 0.4 3.2 1.7 66.4 63.0 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.2 4.7 2.1 68.6 64.2 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 6.4 6.2 3.9 1.9 66.7 63.0 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.7 3.8 2.1 69.3 65.0 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 6.7 6.7 3.6 1.9 68.1 64.2 2.7 4.7 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 6.4 6.4 3.2 1.9 67.7 63.8 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 38 62 100 7.3 6.8 5.0 1.8 65.4 62.2 2.7 4.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 5.8 5.8 3.3 2.1 68.9 65.0 1.2 3.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 7.2 7.3 3.4 2.1 68.8 64.6 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 4.6 4.6 5.0 2.2 68.4 65.0 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.6 4.2 3.7 1.6 64.2 61.4 1.6 3.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.6 5.3 2.2 68.1 64.7 1.6 3.6 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.2 3.4 1.9 1.3 62.6 60.6 0.0 2.0 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.7 5.1 2.2 68.9 64.5 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 5.6 5.5 5.2 2.1 67.6 64.3 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 5.4 5.2 5.5 2.1 67.5 63.9 1.6 3.4 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.6 4.8 1.9 65.8 62.4 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 43 57 100 5.0 5.2 3.8 2.2 69.1 64.9 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 5.9 5.9 3.0 1.8 67.4 63.6 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 4.7 6.2 4.6 2.2 68.8 64.8 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 6.8 6.9 3.4 2.2 69.0 64.8 1.9 4.2 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 3.6 3.0 1.5 63.2 60.9 0.0 2.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 5.0 5.0 5.3 2.3 68.5 65.0 1.4 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------