***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 9999.0 4.7 5.5 2.6 77.3 75.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 5.1 5.4 5.3 2.6 76.5 74.7 2.1 3.4 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 6.4 6.7 5.5 2.4 75.9 73.8 3.4 4.7 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 1.7 1.9 2.6 1.8 71.5 69.6 -1.0 0.2 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 5.9 6.3 3.7 2.1 74.2 71.9 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 5.4 5.9 3.1 2.0 75.6 72.8 3.1 4.2 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 18 82 100 4.8 5.1 5.2 2.7 77.4 75.7 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 0.6 0.9 3.3 1.9 74.0 71.5 -1.5 -0.5 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 6.9 7.2 4.7 2.2 75.0 72.5 4.0 5.3 6.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 5.7 6.0 4.0 2.0 73.8 71.4 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 6.1 6.5 3.8 2.1 75.7 73.2 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 6.4 6.9 3.7 2.1 76.2 73.6 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 25 75 100 6.0 6.4 3.6 2.2 77.1 74.5 3.4 4.5 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 6.8 7.1 5.0 2.1 73.2 71.0 3.9 5.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 5.5 5.7 2.9 1.6 70.2 68.5 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 6.6 7.1 3.5 2.2 76.0 73.5 3.9 5.1 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 22 78 100 4.6 4.8 4.9 2.5 75.9 74.1 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 3.8 4.0 3.8 1.9 73.2 70.7 2.0 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 5.5 5.8 5.4 2.6 76.0 74.1 2.5 3.8 5.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 2.9 3.1 2.1 1.6 72.8 70.2 0.6 1.7 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 29 71 100 6.4 6.8 5.1 2.3 75.5 73.2 3.6 4.8 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 5.2 5.5 5.0 2.4 74.5 72.6 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 5.1 5.5 5.5 2.4 75.3 73.2 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 7.1 7.4 4.9 2.1 73.8 71.5 4.2 5.5 6.8 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 5.0 5.4 3.9 2.2 75.7 73.5 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 5.6 6.0 3.3 2.1 78.0 75.3 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 6.2 6.6 4.8 2.5 77.3 75.2 3.2 4.4 5.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.6 2.9 1.8 70.9 69.0 3.2 4.7 6.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 3.7 3.9 3.2 1.8 73.6 71.1 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 21 79 100 5.0 5.4 5.4 2.7 76.8 75.0 2.0 3.3 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------