***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-05.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 9999.0 5.7 8.6 67.8 49.8 41.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.4 7.2 59.5 46.3 40.5 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 4.3 8.0 9.0 68.6 49.6 42.6 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.8 10.9 11.4 83.0 54.7 47.4 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 5.7 9.3 10.7 76.4 51.6 44.9 5.5 9.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.2 7.7 9.4 73.9 51.3 44.8 4.4 7.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 3.4 5.5 7.0 58.7 45.1 39.4 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.7 11.0 10.7 67.4 46.0 40.9 7.8 12.1 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 4.6 7.1 10.3 71.4 48.7 42.2 4.5 7.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.1 7.9 10.9 70.7 47.7 42.2 4.9 8.4 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 5.5 8.5 10.2 73.2 50.1 43.8 5.4 8.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 4.9 7.6 9.7 67.9 46.9 41.2 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.8 8.3 10.0 71.4 48.9 42.8 5.2 8.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.0 9.8 11.1 70.9 49.5 44.6 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 8.5 11.4 13.0 102.5 64.3 56.7 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 9.6 7.7 9.9 73.8 50.6 44.1 4.5 7.6 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.2 5.2 6.9 58.1 45.3 39.7 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 9.7 6.9 11.9 70.9 47.8 43.2 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.1 6.4 7.7 61.7 46.9 41.3 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.5 8.7 14.2 71.3 48.6 43.9 5.3 9.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 4.2 7.6 9.8 71.8 50.1 42.3 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.5 5.3 7.4 58.7 45.2 39.8 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.9 8.8 66.5 48.8 43.3 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.9 7.9 10.9 70.3 48.5 43.4 4.4 8.2 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.3 8.2 10.2 71.2 50.8 42.7 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.6 7.5 10.4 73.2 49.8 42.7 4.4 7.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.4 6.3 8.9 65.5 47.9 39.9 3.4 6.8 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.4 9.6 11.5 89.5 57.9 51.0 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.2 11.5 12.9 72.8 48.7 44.3 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.8 6.1 7.6 61.6 46.7 40.5 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------