***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2014.-12.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 9999.0 7.0 10.6 137.2 74.8 60.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 8.1 9.7 10.7 154.6 79.0 62.9 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 9.4 10.6 11.0 141.3 76.0 61.8 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 8.9 10.7 12.3 147.2 77.2 63.6 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.9 11.8 11.3 130.9 72.9 59.8 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 6.4 8.9 11.2 112.3 67.3 57.1 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 7.9 9.6 10.4 150.5 78.0 61.6 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 8.6 13.0 12.9 128.6 72.1 60.0 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.9 8.9 11.3 126.4 71.5 58.1 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.0 10.8 12.2 124.7 71.0 58.4 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 6.1 9.3 10.5 123.4 70.7 58.7 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 6.7 10.2 11.1 123.2 70.6 59.1 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 6.7 9.7 10.8 116.6 68.7 57.8 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 11.4 13.9 13.3 142.2 76.2 62.6 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 8.0 11.4 13.8 171.9 82.0 68.1 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 5.4 8.8 10.5 123.9 70.9 59.4 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 8.5 11.0 10.9 164.2 80.9 63.3 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 6.2 9.7 13.9 128.7 72.3 59.4 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 8.2 10.1 10.9 152.3 78.5 63.2 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 7.9 14.9 18.3 145.2 76.3 62.5 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 6.5 10.2 10.9 131.7 73.2 59.0 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 8.3 10.6 11.6 163.0 80.8 64.4 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 8.2 10.0 11.2 146.1 77.2 62.7 2.5 4.5 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.3 10.9 12.6 133.5 73.8 60.1 3.6 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 9.3 10.3 11.9 137.6 74.9 60.3 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 6.0 9.4 12.0 126.8 71.7 60.7 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 7.6 8.1 11.3 134.0 73.8 59.9 2.1 3.9 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 6.9 9.1 12.6 152.4 78.0 64.8 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 9.0 14.8 15.4 133.1 73.6 60.2 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 7.8 9.0 10.6 147.7 77.5 62.4 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------