***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2014.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9999.0 6.3 7.9 91.3 59.1 46.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 3.2 8.3 8.0 99.2 62.9 49.0 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.2 9.6 7.8 90.1 58.4 46.3 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.3 9.9 8.4 93.6 60.1 46.7 4.2 7.4 11.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 3.3 6.8 8.3 85.9 56.0 44.6 3.1 5.6 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.1 7.4 8.4 92.2 60.1 46.3 2.9 5.3 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.7 7.7 8.1 102.1 64.0 50.6 2.7 5.0 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.0 10.2 9.1 84.3 55.7 43.5 5.0 8.7 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.7 5.7 8.3 81.9 53.9 43.5 2.5 4.9 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 3.9 7.2 9.1 83.7 54.9 43.7 3.7 6.3 9.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.8 8.0 85.7 56.7 44.6 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.3 8.1 86.5 57.2 44.2 2.9 5.8 9.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 3.1 7.1 8.3 90.8 59.2 46.2 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 6.2 14.0 9.4 90.7 58.4 45.9 6.0 10.8 17.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 3.2 10.8 8.2 99.0 63.3 47.3 2.7 6.3 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.6 8.0 90.6 59.3 46.3 1.9 4.0 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 2.3 8.3 8.4 110.3 67.1 51.2 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 4.2 7.8 10.1 86.5 56.3 45.2 4.1 6.6 9.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 3.4 8.7 7.8 94.2 60.8 47.3 3.4 6.2 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.3 8.4 12.4 86.8 57.1 45.5 4.2 7.0 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.3 7.4 8.1 86.2 55.9 45.1 3.1 6.0 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 3.2 9.5 8.2 101.8 64.2 49.4 3.6 6.3 10.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.5 8.1 7.7 88.5 58.4 45.5 3.5 6.3 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.4 11.1 9.0 88.3 57.2 45.8 5.2 9.1 14.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.6 8.9 9.1 95.0 59.9 47.7 3.2 6.4 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 2.3 5.7 8.4 92.1 59.3 46.0 1.9 4.1 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.9 8.8 94.9 60.0 47.9 2.7 5.6 9.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.3 6.8 8.1 94.5 61.2 46.8 2.1 4.4 8.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 6.5 12.7 11.1 87.4 56.6 45.3 6.3 10.7 16.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 2.7 7.8 7.9 95.6 61.2 48.2 2.4 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------