***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2013.-26.01.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 32.7 38.1 100.9 58.2 51.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 27.8 30.5 36.9 103.9 60.7 53.7 16.0 24.1 34.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 38.0 39.2 39.3 102.0 58.8 52.7 24.2 33.6 44.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 41.1 43.8 44.6 107.2 62.2 55.4 27.7 36.5 46.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 37.6 36.8 42.0 98.0 55.8 50.6 25.6 33.8 42.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 30.6 29.1 41.1 96.1 54.4 49.6 19.0 26.9 35.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 27.9 29.1 36.2 102.5 59.7 52.5 16.0 23.8 33.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 50.1 47.0 45.6 95.1 53.7 48.8 32.6 44.2 57.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 30.1 28.0 42.0 94.4 52.7 48.3 19.9 26.8 34.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 35.8 33.1 45.1 94.7 53.0 48.5 22.8 31.4 41.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 32.4 30.5 39.7 94.5 53.3 48.8 21.7 29.0 37.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 33.8 31.4 39.8 94.0 53.2 48.4 20.6 29.5 40.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 34.1 32.6 40.4 94.6 53.4 48.5 22.9 30.7 39.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 49.9 51.6 48.1 103.5 59.4 53.7 37.1 46.3 56.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 46.2 46.4 48.2 122.4 70.5 62.7 19.3 29.6 42.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 31.3 29.8 39.3 96.7 55.1 50.1 20.0 27.4 35.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.7 30.6 37.2 107.9 63.0 54.8 15.4 23.2 32.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 34.1 32.9 50.4 97.8 55.2 50.2 22.0 30.0 39.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 32.2 34.4 37.7 103.5 60.2 53.7 20.9 28.8 37.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 39.2 40.2 62.7 102.5 58.8 52.3 24.4 34.3 45.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 35.1 34.3 40.4 97.9 55.7 50.0 23.8 31.5 40.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 30.8 33.5 38.7 106.4 62.0 54.8 17.8 26.3 36.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 30.7 32.0 39.8 102.5 59.1 53.3 19.5 27.2 36.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 41.2 41.1 46.0 99.8 56.8 51.6 30.5 38.0 45.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 37.1 37.7 43.3 101.5 58.4 51.5 23.9 32.8 42.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 28.1 27.8 42.4 99.4 57.1 50.7 16.2 24.0 33.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 32.4 31.7 40.7 99.5 57.1 50.7 19.5 27.8 37.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 31.1 35.1 44.8 111.6 64.6 58.1 18.4 26.5 36.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 54.5 54.7 55.4 101.0 57.6 51.7 36.6 48.8 62.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.4 30.8 37.0 102.3 59.5 52.9 17.8 25.8 35.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------