***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 90 10 100 -2.6 -3.6 -3.1 -0.7 43.4 43.6 -4.8 -2.9 -1.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 -2.7 -2.9 -2.7 0.0 50.3 49.9 -4.5 -2.9 -1.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 -0.7 -1.5 -2.9 -0.6 44.3 44.7 -2.6 -1.0 0.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 47 53 100 -4.1 -4.0 -3.1 1.6 67.0 66.2 -7.7 -5.8 -4.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 90 10 100 -3.0 -3.6 -4.2 -0.4 46.0 46.4 -4.9 -3.3 -1.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 92 8 100 -3.7 -3.2 -5.5 0.8 57.7 57.3 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 -2.7 -2.8 -2.8 0.1 50.5 50.2 -4.6 -2.9 -1.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 -6.9 -8.7 -7.0 -1.3 38.0 38.5 -9.2 -7.5 -6.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 84 16 100 -2.0 -3.3 -4.5 -0.9 41.4 42.2 -4.2 -2.5 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 -4.9 -4.5 -6.8 -1.7 33.8 34.9 -4.6 -3.1 -1.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 -2.8 -4.1 -5.1 -0.9 41.1 41.8 -4.9 -3.3 -1.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 -3.5 -4.9 -5.8 -1.0 40.3 40.8 -5.7 -3.9 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 -2.7 -4.4 -6.0 -1.2 38.1 38.6 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 -4.4 -4.2 -6.2 -2.2 30.7 32.5 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 44 56 100 -1.2 -0.8 -1.0 1.8 70.5 69.2 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 -2.2 -2.5 -4.6 -0.1 49.5 49.6 -4.0 -2.4 -1.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 96 4 100 -3.0 -2.6 -2.4 0.6 55.5 54.9 -4.7 -3.1 -1.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 -4.5 -6.7 -7.1 -1.5 35.6 36.7 -7.0 -5.3 -3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 -2.8 -3.0 -2.8 -0.1 49.5 49.2 -4.7 -3.0 -1.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 -7.0 -9.0 -7.8 -1.1 39.5 39.9 -9.9 -7.7 -5.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 90 10 100 -2.5 -3.4 -3.2 -0.5 45.1 45.4 -4.7 -2.8 -1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 96 4 100 -3.0 -2.6 -2.2 0.6 55.7 55.1 -4.8 -3.1 -1.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 -3.0 -3.4 -3.1 -0.2 47.7 47.8 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 -5.1 -4.6 -5.4 -1.5 35.2 36.7 -4.8 -3.2 -1.7 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 94 6 100 -2.6 -2.8 -3.0 -0.1 48.9 48.9 -4.3 -2.8 -1.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 -2.9 -4.8 -6.5 -1.3 37.0 37.5 -5.2 -3.5 -2.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 -2.1 -2.9 -3.1 -0.5 44.8 45.0 -4.1 -2.3 -0.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 47 53 100 -2.4 -2.2 -2.5 1.6 67.4 66.4 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 -7.4 -6.9 -8.4 -1.8 33.3 34.2 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 94 6 100 -2.5 -2.9 -2.8 -0.2 48.2 48.0 -4.5 -2.7 -1.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------