***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 -2.1 -1.8 -2.1 0.9 60.2 59.6 -3.3 -2.4 -1.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 46 54 100 -1.9 -2.0 -1.8 1.3 64.8 63.8 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 -0.7 -0.3 -1.9 1.0 61.8 61.2 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 23 77 100 -4.4 -4.3 -3.5 2.1 74.2 71.9 -7.2 -6.0 -4.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 -2.2 -2.5 -3.8 1.1 63.5 62.6 -4.2 -3.2 -2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 42 58 100 -3.2 -3.3 -5.8 1.1 64.6 62.9 -5.1 -4.2 -3.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 -2.6 -1.9 -1.8 1.3 64.5 63.5 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 -7.0 -7.1 -6.1 0.4 54.9 54.7 -8.2 -7.3 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 -1.4 -1.8 -3.7 0.9 60.6 60.1 -3.5 -2.5 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 -2.8 -2.9 -5.6 0.3 54.0 54.2 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 -3.0 -2.8 -4.6 0.8 59.4 58.9 -4.4 -3.3 -2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 -3.7 -3.7 -5.3 0.6 57.0 56.6 -5.1 -4.1 -3.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -3.3 -3.4 -5.8 0.3 53.3 53.4 -4.7 -3.6 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 -1.9 -2.0 -4.3 0.4 55.0 55.0 -3.2 -2.2 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 -1.5 -1.2 -2.0 2.2 76.2 73.9 -4.2 -3.1 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 -1.6 -1.9 -4.9 1.0 62.0 61.1 -3.5 -2.6 -1.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 -2.0 -2.1 -1.6 1.6 67.4 66.1 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 -4.7 -4.9 -6.1 0.3 53.6 53.8 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 46 54 100 -1.8 -2.0 -1.9 1.3 64.5 63.6 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 -7.6 -7.9 -7.2 0.0 50.5 51.1 -9.3 -8.0 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 42 58 100 -1.7 -2.0 -2.5 1.0 61.8 61.2 -3.8 -2.7 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 1.6 67.6 66.5 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 44 56 100 -2.0 -2.2 -2.2 1.1 63.5 62.9 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 -2.8 -2.7 -4.2 0.6 57.6 57.3 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 -1.7 -1.9 -2.7 1.2 64.4 63.3 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 -3.1 -3.4 -5.9 0.2 52.1 52.1 -4.6 -3.5 -2.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 -2.2 -1.8 -2.3 0.9 60.8 60.1 -3.7 -2.5 -1.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 25 75 100 -2.7 -2.5 -3.3 2.0 73.6 71.3 -5.2 -4.1 -3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 -4.8 -5.1 -6.9 0.0 49.4 50.1 -6.0 -5.1 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 -2.4 -1.8 -1.9 1.2 63.4 62.6 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------