***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 7.2 8.5 6.1 3.1 76.2 73.1 2.2 4.6 6.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 6.9 7.9 6.4 3.5 77.2 74.4 1.2 3.7 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.1 9.3 6.7 3.3 76.3 73.1 2.3 4.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 4.0 5.7 4.7 4.2 84.0 79.7 -1.1 1.0 2.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 7.7 8.9 5.2 3.3 78.7 74.9 2.0 4.5 6.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 6.9 7.9 4.1 3.0 77.8 71.9 1.9 4.1 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 6.3 7.3 6.2 3.4 77.1 74.3 0.9 3.3 5.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 22 78 100 2.0 2.7 4.8 3.2 78.9 73.4 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 26 74 100 9.0 10.4 6.1 3.4 78.7 74.9 2.8 5.5 8.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 7.5 8.2 5.2 3.1 76.5 72.3 2.0 4.3 6.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 22 78 100 8.1 9.1 5.5 3.3 77.9 74.0 2.2 4.7 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 20 80 100 8.6 9.8 5.2 3.3 79.7 74.6 2.5 5.1 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 28 72 100 7.6 8.1 4.7 2.6 74.4 70.2 2.1 4.5 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 9.1 10.4 6.7 3.5 77.6 73.8 2.7 5.5 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 17 83 100 7.6 10.0 6.4 4.5 86.3 82.1 1.8 4.2 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 23 77 100 8.6 9.6 4.9 3.2 77.7 73.6 2.6 5.1 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 6.0 7.3 6.4 3.5 78.3 75.5 0.8 3.1 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 25 75 100 5.1 5.7 5.1 3.2 77.1 72.3 0.8 2.6 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 7.4 8.6 6.6 3.4 77.0 74.1 1.4 4.1 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 4.4 5.3 3.6 2.8 77.5 71.3 -0.4 1.7 3.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 8.1 9.3 6.5 3.2 77.2 73.6 2.5 5.0 7.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 7.2 8.4 6.6 3.5 78.0 75.2 1.4 3.9 6.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 6.7 7.8 6.7 3.4 76.8 73.7 1.2 3.7 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 29 71 100 9.4 10.7 6.4 3.3 77.3 73.1 3.4 6.1 8.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 6.6 7.7 5.2 3.2 77.9 74.2 1.6 3.8 5.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 6.9 7.5 4.1 2.6 77.0 71.9 2.2 4.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 7.6 8.7 5.6 3.0 76.0 72.7 2.1 4.6 7.0 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 8.6 10.6 5.6 4.3 84.2 79.7 2.6 5.1 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 5.8 6.7 4.5 3.0 76.9 71.8 0.7 2.9 5.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 6.7 7.7 6.3 3.3 76.7 73.9 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------