***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 6.0 5.9 4.6 2.3 68.6 66.7 2.5 4.2 5.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 5.3 5.4 4.9 2.7 70.3 68.3 1.4 3.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 38 62 100 6.6 6.6 5.0 2.3 67.7 65.7 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 2.9 2.8 2.3 2.4 69.7 66.9 -1.9 0.3 2.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 6.4 6.1 3.1 2.0 67.1 64.6 2.6 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.1 1.8 1.0 58.5 57.7 2.8 4.4 5.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 5.0 5.2 4.8 2.7 70.5 68.4 0.9 2.8 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 1.8 1.3 2.5 1.4 62.4 60.6 -1.4 0.2 1.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 7.6 7.1 3.8 1.9 65.5 63.4 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 6.4 5.8 3.1 1.5 62.8 61.1 2.3 4.3 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 6.7 6.2 3.1 1.8 65.2 62.9 2.5 4.5 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 7.2 6.7 2.9 1.5 63.3 61.2 3.3 5.2 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 5.0 5.4 2.2 1.1 60.5 59.1 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 5.8 7.0 4.3 1.9 64.9 63.0 2.7 5.0 7.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 6.8 6.8 3.2 2.5 70.2 67.4 1.9 4.1 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 7.0 6.4 2.6 1.6 63.8 61.7 3.1 5.0 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 4.9 5.1 4.9 2.7 70.7 68.4 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 3.3 3.9 3.1 1.4 61.8 60.3 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 5.7 5.8 5.0 2.6 69.3 67.4 1.7 3.6 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.3 2.7 1.5 1.1 60.7 59.3 -0.1 1.7 3.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 6.9 6.6 4.4 2.0 66.6 64.5 2.8 4.7 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.9 5.0 2.6 70.3 68.2 1.5 3.5 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 5.6 5.5 5.2 2.3 67.6 65.8 1.6 3.5 5.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 6.2 7.3 4.1 1.8 64.5 62.6 3.2 5.4 7.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 5.6 5.5 3.3 2.2 68.5 66.4 2.1 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.6 2.2 1.1 61.5 59.8 2.8 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 6.2 6.1 4.1 2.2 68.1 66.2 2.3 4.1 5.8 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 7.6 7.3 2.6 2.3 68.4 65.7 2.3 4.7 6.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 3.1 3.7 2.5 1.3 61.0 59.6 0.6 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 5.2 5.3 4.8 2.6 69.9 67.9 1.3 3.1 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------