***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.01.2020.-26.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.2 3.9 0.7 55.9 56.1 1.7 3.6 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 3.9 4.1 4.0 1.0 58.2 58.2 1.5 3.2 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 5.1 4.9 4.2 0.6 54.4 54.8 2.4 4.4 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.7 56.2 55.8 -3.0 -0.8 1.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.8 2.3 0.4 53.5 53.5 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.6 3.7 1.2 -0.2 48.2 49.2 2.2 3.9 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 4.8 3.7 4.0 1.0 58.5 58.2 1.1 2.9 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.5 -1.1 1.9 0.1 50.6 51.2 -2.9 -1.2 0.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 5.9 5.3 3.0 0.3 52.1 52.3 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.4 2.4 0.0 50.4 50.8 2.6 4.4 6.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.8 2.3 0.2 51.7 52.1 2.8 4.6 6.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.8 2.2 0.1 51.3 51.9 2.7 4.7 6.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.7 1.7 0.1 50.9 51.5 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.7 5.1 3.5 0.2 51.8 51.9 2.7 4.9 6.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.3 2.1 0.9 57.9 57.1 1.2 3.3 5.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.9 5.3 1.9 0.2 51.5 52.1 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 4.5 3.6 4.2 1.1 58.9 58.3 1.1 2.8 4.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 3.6 3.1 2.5 0.1 50.5 50.9 1.6 3.0 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.3 4.1 0.9 56.8 57.0 1.6 3.6 5.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.7 2.2 1.0 0.2 52.4 52.4 0.0 2.0 3.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.4 5.0 3.6 0.4 53.0 53.1 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 4.2 4.4 4.2 1.0 58.1 57.8 1.8 3.6 5.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.0 3.8 4.3 0.6 54.5 54.8 1.6 3.4 5.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 5.6 4.9 3.4 0.2 51.6 51.7 2.7 4.8 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 4.0 3.9 2.5 0.7 56.0 55.7 1.8 3.4 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 2.5 4.5 1.7 0.2 52.5 52.8 2.7 4.3 5.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 4.9 4.8 3.4 0.7 55.7 55.8 2.3 4.2 5.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.9 1.6 0.6 55.0 54.8 1.9 4.2 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.2 2.0 0.1 50.9 51.3 0.0 2.0 3.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 41 59 100 4.9 3.9 3.9 1.0 57.6 57.8 1.4 3.1 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------