***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.12.2019.-05.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 92 8 0 100 1.7 0.5 1.3 9.2 7.8 6.9 3.4 6.3 10.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 1.6 0.5 0.9 8.0 8.5 6.7 3.2 6.1 10.2 30 Becej 27400G00 94 6 0 100 2.0 0.5 1.2 8.8 6.3 6.1 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 3.0 1.0 1.2 8.4 5.5 5.8 5.8 9.7 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 2.8 1.0 1.7 10.8 5.6 6.4 5.5 9.0 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 95 5 0 100 2.3 1.0 1.4 11.3 7.3 7.4 4.4 7.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 92 8 0 100 1.5 0.4 0.9 7.9 8.8 6.9 3.3 6.5 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 96 4 0 100 4.4 1.6 1.8 11.9 5.4 6.6 7.8 12.1 17.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 97 3 0 100 2.3 0.8 1.5 10.5 5.4 6.1 4.5 7.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 96 4 0 100 2.5 0.7 1.9 12.4 5.1 6.6 4.9 8.4 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 95 5 0 100 3.1 1.1 1.6 11.1 5.4 6.4 5.4 8.5 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 2.1 0.5 1.4 10.2 5.3 6.1 4.7 8.3 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 2.8 1.0 1.9 12.4 6.7 7.3 5.2 8.6 13.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 94 6 0 100 2.6 0.5 1.5 9.6 4.7 5.5 5.4 9.9 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 97 3 0 100 1.2 0.3 0.7 5.5 7.6 5.4 3.3 6.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 94 6 0 100 2.3 0.8 1.5 10.1 6.0 6.4 4.5 7.6 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 93 7 0 100 1.5 0.5 0.9 7.7 8.3 6.6 3.1 6.2 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 94 6 0 100 2.0 0.4 1.9 12.1 4.4 6.1 4.0 7.3 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 2.0 0.7 1.0 8.2 7.6 6.3 4.0 7.0 11.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 95 5 0 100 2.8 0.8 2.1 12.3 5.4 6.7 5.3 9.0 13.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 95 5 0 100 2.1 0.7 1.4 9.7 6.2 6.4 4.3 7.6 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 94 6 0 100 1.6 0.5 1.0 8.3 7.8 6.5 3.3 6.2 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 95 5 0 100 1.7 0.5 1.1 8.2 6.0 5.6 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 94 6 0 100 2.1 0.4 1.5 10.0 4.8 5.7 4.4 8.2 13.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 93 7 0 100 2.1 0.6 1.6 10.2 6.6 6.8 4.3 8.1 13.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 2.0 0.8 1.4 10.5 6.8 6.9 4.4 7.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 92 8 0 100 1.6 0.4 1.4 9.8 8.0 7.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 2.0 0.6 0.9 7.1 6.5 5.7 4.2 7.5 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 94 6 0 100 3.3 0.6 2.0 12.1 4.6 6.3 6.6 11.8 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 91 9 0 100 2.0 0.8 1.0 8.4 8.5 6.9 3.8 6.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------