***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.01.2020.-12.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 1.9 2.5 7.1 55.6 40.4 34.4 1.9 3.3 5.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.2 6.5 58.2 43.7 34.8 2.2 4.0 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 2.5 3.8 7.8 60.6 43.8 37.1 2.5 4.7 7.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.0 3.9 8.9 59.9 42.4 36.2 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.0 4.5 8.4 58.1 40.8 34.3 3.4 6.1 9.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.6 10.9 82.5 53.3 41.6 2.5 5.0 8.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 1.8 2.9 6.3 57.5 43.4 34.2 1.9 3.7 6.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 3.7 6.1 10.3 68.0 46.6 37.6 3.7 6.7 10.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.1 3.4 9.4 63.4 42.8 35.8 2.3 4.4 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 2.5 4.3 9.9 66.8 45.8 36.7 2.4 5.1 9.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 2.3 3.7 9.4 64.4 44.2 36.2 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 2.9 4.7 9.7 68.7 46.8 38.0 2.8 5.2 8.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.7 4.8 10.2 71.3 48.0 39.1 2.6 5.2 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.8 6.4 11.1 72.5 49.2 38.8 3.7 6.5 10.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.3 8.3 58.1 44.3 34.6 2.1 4.0 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.0 10.3 73.3 49.2 40.9 1.9 4.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.6 6.3 57.8 44.3 34.3 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 2.6 4.7 11.2 72.5 48.9 39.1 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.2 6.8 58.8 43.1 35.0 2.1 4.0 6.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 3.3 4.8 11.8 63.2 43.8 36.0 3.0 6.1 10.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.3 3.6 8.8 62.0 42.8 36.9 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.2 3.6 6.7 58.1 43.8 33.8 2.5 4.4 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 2.4 3.7 7.7 61.6 43.6 36.2 2.5 4.5 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.6 5.8 10.9 73.6 49.1 39.8 3.6 5.9 8.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 2.6 3.2 7.8 53.3 37.7 32.9 2.6 4.9 7.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.7 9.4 66.0 44.1 35.4 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 2.0 2.8 7.6 56.9 40.7 34.7 2.1 3.9 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.0 3.1 8.8 63.4 45.6 36.0 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.1 7.0 11.8 72.0 48.9 39.3 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 1.9 2.9 6.7 57.9 43.1 35.0 1.9 3.7 6.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------