***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.12.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.01.2020.-19.01.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 1.7 3.7 8.3 72.3 51.2 38.7 1.8 3.5 6.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 1.8 3.5 6.7 66.4 49.3 36.8 1.8 3.6 6.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.1 4.4 8.3 72.4 51.5 39.0 2.0 4.1 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 2.7 5.9 9.4 71.9 50.9 38.9 2.9 5.6 9.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 2.2 4.4 9.5 73.9 50.4 39.4 2.0 4.3 7.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 1.7 3.7 10.0 85.9 56.6 42.6 1.6 3.0 5.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.5 2.8 6.5 65.9 48.9 37.0 1.6 2.9 4.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.4 10.5 80.0 53.0 41.7 3.9 7.6 12.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.0 3.7 10.3 76.5 52.1 41.5 1.9 3.4 5.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 2.4 4.4 10.6 77.7 52.1 41.2 2.3 4.1 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.2 4.1 9.4 77.0 51.8 40.8 2.1 3.9 6.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.7 3.5 9.8 82.7 54.7 42.9 1.5 3.0 5.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.2 4.3 10.1 82.4 54.5 42.1 2.0 3.7 6.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.2 6.4 11.2 80.9 54.7 42.4 3.0 5.6 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.7 4.1 8.9 68.2 51.9 37.8 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.0 9.4 78.7 52.8 41.3 1.7 3.6 6.3 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.6 2.8 6.0 62.1 46.9 35.7 1.7 3.1 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 2.8 5.2 11.2 79.3 53.1 42.0 2.6 4.8 7.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 1.9 4.0 7.2 69.2 50.6 37.8 1.8 3.9 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.7 5.3 12.8 75.6 51.5 40.7 2.7 5.0 8.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.1 9.4 74.6 51.6 40.3 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 2.0 4.1 6.8 67.6 50.1 37.2 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.8 8.1 73.6 52.3 39.8 1.6 3.5 6.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.4 4.8 10.5 78.8 53.6 41.6 2.2 4.3 7.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 1.5 3.7 9.5 73.1 50.9 38.9 1.5 3.5 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.5 3.3 10.3 86.8 56.8 41.0 1.6 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 1.8 3.9 8.9 74.6 52.0 39.6 1.7 3.6 6.4 29 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 1.9 4.1 9.0 71.9 51.9 39.0 1.9 3.8 6.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.2 8.0 11.9 80.4 53.8 42.6 3.8 7.1 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.2 7.1 68.5 50.2 37.3 1.5 3.1 5.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------