***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 -1.9 -1.5 1.0 63.5 61.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 -1.9 -1.8 -1.6 1.4 67.7 65.3 -4.2 -3.0 -1.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 -0.7 -0.2 -1.7 1.0 64.0 61.8 -2.0 -1.0 -0.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 -5.7 -5.1 -4.0 1.0 64.3 61.9 -7.3 -6.1 -4.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -2.6 -3.6 0.8 61.6 59.5 -4.2 -3.2 -2.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 -3.8 -4.1 -5.8 0.2 52.5 52.3 -5.2 -4.2 -3.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 41 59 100 -1.7 -1.7 -1.7 1.4 67.7 65.3 -4.1 -2.9 -1.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -7.0 -7.2 -4.9 0.3 54.1 53.5 -8.3 -7.4 -6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 -2.1 -1.9 -3.0 0.7 60.1 58.0 -3.6 -2.5 -1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 -2.8 -2.8 -4.2 0.5 56.5 55.2 -4.1 -3.2 -2.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 -3.0 -2.9 -4.0 0.5 57.7 56.4 -4.5 -3.4 -2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 -3.8 -3.9 -4.4 0.3 54.0 53.7 -5.2 -4.1 -3.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 -3.3 -3.5 -4.8 0.2 52.7 52.5 -4.8 -3.7 -2.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 -1.9 -1.5 -3.0 0.9 63.2 60.4 -3.2 -2.3 -1.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 -2.7 -2.0 -3.5 1.1 65.2 62.9 -4.3 -3.1 -2.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 -2.3 -2.3 -4.4 0.5 57.2 56.1 -3.6 -2.6 -1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 -2.1 -2.0 -1.5 1.6 68.9 66.3 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 -4.6 -4.8 -4.9 0.3 54.6 53.6 -6.2 -5.1 -4.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 -2.6 -1.8 -1.6 1.3 67.1 64.7 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 -9.6 -7.9 -6.3 0.1 51.6 51.4 -9.3 -8.0 -6.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 -2.4 -2.0 -2.1 0.8 62.0 59.8 -3.7 -2.7 -1.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 45 55 100 -2.2 -2.0 -1.4 1.5 68.9 66.2 -4.3 -3.2 -2.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 -2.7 -2.0 -1.9 1.2 66.0 63.5 -4.0 -3.0 -2.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 -2.8 -2.6 -3.3 0.6 59.3 57.3 -4.1 -3.1 -2.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 -2.4 -2.0 -3.0 1.0 64.0 61.7 -3.7 -2.8 -1.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 -3.2 -3.6 -4.8 -0.1 49.0 49.7 -4.6 -3.6 -2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 -2.2 -1.7 -2.2 1.0 63.5 61.4 -3.7 -2.6 -1.5 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 -3.8 -3.2 -3.7 1.1 64.9 62.4 -5.2 -4.1 -3.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 -6.2 -5.0 -5.6 0.2 52.2 51.7 -6.1 -5.1 -4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 45 55 100 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 1.3 66.5 64.2 -3.9 -2.7 -1.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------