***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9999.0 6.3 4.0 1.0 60.5 59.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 6.1 6.3 4.4 1.9 68.4 66.4 1.1 3.6 5.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 5.7 6.7 4.4 1.1 61.5 59.8 2.3 4.9 7.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 1.8 2.4 2.5 1.0 61.2 59.3 -1.0 1.1 3.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 5.4 5.2 2.7 0.5 55.2 54.2 2.1 4.5 6.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.9 2.6 1.0 -0.9 39.5 41.6 1.8 4.0 6.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 3.8 5.7 4.1 1.8 67.7 65.9 0.7 3.1 5.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 -1.6 -0.1 1.9 -0.4 45.6 46.7 -1.3 0.3 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.0 3.4 0.3 53.5 52.8 2.8 5.4 7.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 5.4 4.1 2.6 -0.1 48.3 48.7 2.0 4.3 6.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.6 4.7 2.4 0.0 50.1 50.3 2.3 4.7 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.1 4.3 2.1 -0.4 45.0 46.3 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 5.5 3.0 1.4 -0.8 39.6 42.0 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.4 6.6 3.9 0.7 57.5 56.3 2.7 5.4 8.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 4.9 6.6 3.0 1.5 67.4 64.3 1.8 4.1 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 6.1 4.7 1.9 -0.2 47.0 47.8 2.6 5.1 7.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 5.6 6.0 4.4 2.1 70.9 68.8 0.7 3.0 5.3 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 0.5 2.2 2.3 -0.3 45.8 46.9 0.8 2.6 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 44 56 100 6.6 6.7 4.6 1.8 67.4 65.4 1.4 4.0 6.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -0.9 0.5 0.6 -0.7 41.2 43.4 -0.5 1.5 3.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 5.8 6.0 3.8 0.6 56.9 55.7 2.5 5.0 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.4 6.8 4.7 2.1 70.6 68.4 1.2 3.7 6.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 4.4 5.8 4.6 1.5 64.8 62.8 1.2 3.7 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.5 3.6 0.3 53.5 53.0 3.4 6.0 8.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 4.5 4.9 2.6 0.7 57.9 56.6 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.6 2.6 1.0 -1.0 36.2 39.4 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 5.2 5.7 3.2 0.7 58.3 57.1 2.1 4.6 6.9 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.1 6.9 2.7 1.1 61.7 59.6 2.7 5.2 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 0.3 2.1 1.6 -0.5 43.9 45.4 0.7 2.9 4.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 4.1 5.8 4.3 1.6 66.2 64.3 1.0 3.5 5.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------