***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 9999.0 4.2 4.6 1.2 62.2 59.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 5.3 4.8 4.5 1.6 64.7 61.3 1.5 3.3 4.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.9 4.9 1.3 62.8 59.5 2.8 4.6 6.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.5 1.7 2.9 1.3 63.2 59.8 -2.0 0.1 2.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 2.4 5.4 3.4 1.1 60.4 57.9 2.8 4.4 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 5.1 4.8 1.8 0.4 54.3 54.1 2.9 4.4 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 5.0 4.4 4.3 1.5 64.1 60.9 1.1 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -1.9 0.4 2.5 0.5 54.8 54.4 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 3.0 6.4 4.1 1.0 59.8 57.3 3.4 5.3 7.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 2.2 5.1 3.3 0.7 56.7 55.4 2.5 4.4 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.4 5.5 3.1 0.8 58.0 56.3 2.7 4.6 6.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 5.8 2.8 0.5 55.3 54.7 3.4 5.2 6.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.0 4.7 2.2 0.4 53.8 53.8 2.5 4.3 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.3 4.4 1.1 60.2 57.7 2.8 5.0 7.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.2 3.1 1.6 66.2 61.8 2.1 4.2 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.7 2.6 0.7 57.0 55.8 3.2 5.0 6.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 4.9 4.4 4.3 1.6 64.9 61.4 1.3 3.0 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 3.6 3.3 2.9 0.5 54.8 54.3 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 5.8 5.2 4.8 1.6 64.6 61.0 1.8 3.7 5.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.1 51.1 52.4 0.2 1.9 3.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 5.6 6.0 4.5 1.2 61.2 58.3 3.0 4.8 6.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 5.8 5.2 4.7 1.6 64.9 61.3 1.8 3.6 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 5.6 5.0 5.0 1.5 63.7 60.1 1.8 3.6 5.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.4 4.2 0.9 58.8 56.7 3.3 5.4 7.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 1.8 4.6 3.1 1.1 61.1 58.5 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 5.2 4.7 1.9 0.2 52.2 53.0 2.9 4.5 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 2.1 5.2 3.7 1.1 60.9 58.4 2.4 4.1 5.7 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 7.3 6.5 3.1 1.4 64.0 60.3 2.5 4.7 6.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 3.3 2.8 2.1 0.3 52.9 53.4 0.7 2.5 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 5.2 4.6 4.6 1.5 64.1 60.8 1.5 3.2 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------