***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9999.0 4.1 4.4 1.3 67.9 63.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 3.7 4.9 4.3 1.6 70.3 66.1 2.1 3.4 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 5.2 6.0 4.6 1.3 67.5 62.9 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 1.6 1.7 2.6 1.3 68.8 63.7 -1.1 0.2 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.5 3.1 1.0 64.8 60.3 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.9 4.6 1.9 0.5 57.2 55.1 3.1 4.2 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 46 54 100 4.1 4.5 4.1 1.6 70.2 66.0 1.8 3.0 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.8 -0.2 2.4 0.4 56.8 54.5 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.9 6.2 3.9 0.9 63.1 58.9 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.1 5.0 3.1 0.6 59.1 56.0 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.3 5.3 3.0 0.7 60.8 57.5 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.7 5.4 2.6 0.4 56.5 54.5 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 3.2 4.8 2.3 0.3 55.2 53.8 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 5.7 6.3 4.2 1.0 64.3 59.9 3.8 5.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 5.5 5.8 3.0 1.5 71.8 66.3 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 5.6 5.8 2.6 0.7 60.2 57.3 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 43 57 100 4.1 4.4 4.1 1.7 71.4 67.1 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 1.7 3.1 2.8 0.4 56.4 54.0 2.0 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 4.1 5.2 4.5 1.5 69.7 65.4 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 0.4 1.9 1.0 0.1 52.5 51.4 0.7 1.7 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 5.3 5.9 4.3 1.1 65.6 61.0 3.6 4.8 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 44 56 100 4.9 5.2 4.5 1.7 71.1 66.6 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.9 4.7 1.4 68.2 63.7 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.3 4.0 0.8 61.6 57.8 4.2 5.5 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 4.0 4.8 3.1 1.1 67.4 62.7 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.1 4.4 1.8 0.1 51.6 51.3 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.6 3.7 1.1 66.9 62.6 3.2 4.4 5.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 6.2 6.4 2.9 1.3 68.8 63.8 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 1.0 2.6 2.0 0.3 54.5 52.7 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 3.6 4.7 4.4 1.5 69.6 65.3 2.0 3.3 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------