***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2013.-13.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 1.2 7.8 67.2 46.6 39.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.3 6.0 53.0 38.1 32.8 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.2 7.2 61.7 42.7 36.8 2.2 4.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 2.0 2.8 7.0 56.7 41.1 35.6 2.1 3.8 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.8 4.2 8.1 65.4 44.9 38.8 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 2.4 3.6 7.6 63.9 44.0 37.2 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 1.6 2.3 6.2 56.0 39.5 34.3 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.9 4.5 7.8 62.0 43.6 38.0 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 2.1 3.3 8.8 68.8 46.4 40.0 2.0 3.8 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 2.3 3.9 8.7 67.6 45.7 39.7 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.1 7.3 64.3 44.0 38.0 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.3 3.5 6.8 61.5 43.9 38.2 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.2 3.7 7.5 66.3 46.0 39.6 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.9 3.8 7.8 56.0 39.5 34.8 2.9 5.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 1.7 1.9 5.0 40.4 32.4 27.6 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 1.8 3.0 6.9 62.0 43.3 37.4 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 1.7 2.0 5.3 47.5 35.4 30.8 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 2.4 3.9 9.5 66.4 45.4 39.7 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 2.2 2.8 6.2 53.1 37.6 32.4 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 2.4 3.3 9.2 54.7 40.5 35.2 2.3 4.9 9.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 2.2 3.7 8.3 68.1 46.8 40.2 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 65 35 0 100 2.2 2.4 5.3 44.2 33.1 28.9 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 63 37 0 100 1.8 2.4 6.7 54.9 38.3 33.1 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 2.6 4.1 8.4 63.4 43.8 38.1 2.9 4.8 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.1 3.8 8.9 69.4 48.0 41.2 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 2.0 2.9 6.5 57.8 42.8 37.4 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 1.8 3.3 8.8 70.5 48.1 41.2 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 1.7 2.2 5.9 49.0 36.5 31.3 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.6 9.7 62.7 44.0 38.5 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 1.7 2.4 6.5 57.0 40.3 34.6 1.8 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------