***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2013.-20.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 2.8 10.0 85.7 57.2 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 2.3 6.1 10.1 95.8 61.3 49.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 2.7 6.2 9.6 80.6 54.5 45.3 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.1 10.1 75.7 52.7 44.2 3.9 7.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.3 5.8 10.4 76.9 52.9 45.1 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.2 4.7 11.6 86.8 56.2 46.3 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.0 5.3 10.4 100.9 63.2 51.3 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.4 9.9 11.9 82.9 55.1 46.0 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 2.3 4.4 10.6 76.9 52.0 44.5 2.0 4.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.4 11.6 80.3 53.7 45.8 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.6 10.2 79.6 54.4 45.9 1.8 3.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 2.4 4.7 10.5 81.4 54.5 45.0 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.6 11.3 84.9 55.9 46.3 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.5 7.7 11.9 83.4 54.6 45.8 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.3 9.2 71.7 52.4 42.8 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.3 4.5 10.4 82.5 55.2 45.9 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.6 10.5 105.1 64.6 51.6 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.1 12.8 80.9 53.2 45.2 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 2.3 6.4 9.9 89.8 58.7 47.4 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.0 6.5 15.7 88.1 56.9 46.9 2.8 5.2 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.3 10.2 80.3 53.8 45.5 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 2.5 7.3 10.4 97.9 61.3 48.4 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.4 5.9 10.2 84.2 56.0 45.9 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 2.9 5.8 11.2 78.5 52.2 44.1 2.7 5.3 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 6.1 5.7 11.4 85.7 56.5 47.6 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 1.8 3.4 11.0 83.8 55.1 45.4 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 5.6 5.5 11.2 89.3 58.1 48.2 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.0 9.5 73.0 52.0 42.9 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.4 13.8 83.6 54.4 45.5 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 2.2 5.7 9.8 91.0 59.4 48.2 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------