***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2013.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 11.7 9.8 122.7 70.6 57.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 9.8 9.9 128.5 72.3 58.7 2.6 4.8 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 8.3 12.3 10.6 126.2 71.5 57.4 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 12.4 12.7 10.9 126.7 71.7 57.0 4.5 7.4 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 33 67 100 10.7 10.8 11.4 125.4 71.2 57.5 3.5 6.0 9.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.1 10.5 11.8 126.5 71.5 55.9 2.9 5.4 8.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 8.7 8.9 9.7 124.8 71.3 58.6 2.2 4.3 7.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 15.0 12.7 125.1 71.1 56.8 5.3 8.7 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.9 9.1 11.9 125.4 71.2 57.8 2.8 5.0 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.6 12.7 123.2 70.4 56.3 3.9 6.3 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.3 10.1 10.9 124.7 71.0 56.4 3.2 5.6 8.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 10.7 11.3 11.3 129.2 72.4 57.5 3.3 6.0 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 11.0 11.3 11.6 127.7 71.9 56.9 3.3 5.9 9.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.7 20.2 13.5 130.1 72.7 57.6 6.0 10.6 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.1 13.5 10.3 129.5 72.6 55.7 2.6 5.7 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.0 9.5 10.7 125.0 71.1 55.9 2.9 5.1 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.5 8.7 9.4 120.2 70.2 56.8 2.2 4.4 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.4 14.1 123.2 70.4 56.5 4.1 6.7 10.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.2 11.0 10.3 131.6 73.1 58.7 3.1 5.6 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.4 12.4 16.8 123.2 70.5 57.5 4.1 7.1 10.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 9.7 9.9 11.0 124.4 70.9 57.3 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.9 10.0 123.1 70.8 56.0 3.0 5.4 8.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.8 10.6 11.1 134.2 73.8 58.7 3.0 5.3 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.8 15.0 12.9 126.3 71.5 56.8 5.0 8.5 13.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.3 12.5 11.1 126.7 71.7 58.7 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 9.3 10.7 12.5 140.6 75.7 59.4 2.6 4.8 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 7.7 11.4 10.5 124.7 71.1 58.7 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 2.6 9.0 10.5 126.4 71.6 55.9 2.4 4.6 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.1 19.2 15.3 123.4 70.5 56.7 6.8 11.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 6.1 9.7 10.0 128.3 72.2 59.0 2.1 4.4 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------