***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2012.-27.01.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 27.3 35.6 79.5 41.6 39.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 30.3 20.0 32.3 77.4 40.9 39.4 16.3 24.9 35.3 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 23.6 29.6 36.9 79.7 41.4 39.6 24.8 34.7 46.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 59 41 0 100 26.6 31.0 40.0 78.9 38.3 38.3 28.1 37.3 47.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 25.0 31.6 43.3 84.5 43.3 41.9 26.4 34.9 44.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 33.1 26.7 43.9 90.1 46.9 44.4 19.8 28.3 38.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 28.9 20.7 32.5 79.0 42.6 41.0 16.4 24.4 33.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 32.6 41.8 46.2 86.8 44.2 42.0 34.1 46.1 59.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 19.6 25.8 45.6 87.0 45.6 43.7 20.6 27.7 35.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 22.8 30.5 48.0 88.3 46.0 43.9 23.8 32.7 43.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 21.8 27.2 41.2 85.1 43.4 41.7 22.6 30.4 38.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 20.0 26.7 41.2 86.6 44.0 41.8 21.0 30.0 40.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 36.6 29.5 43.2 88.6 45.3 43.0 23.3 31.9 41.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 53.2 43.2 45.7 82.5 42.0 40.5 38.2 48.0 58.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 63 37 0 100 17.4 18.7 34.5 70.4 31.9 33.3 19.3 29.6 42.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 20.3 25.9 41.1 86.5 44.3 42.4 20.8 28.7 37.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 16.4 19.4 30.8 76.3 40.4 39.5 16.1 24.1 33.5 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 22.8 29.8 52.0 88.3 46.2 43.7 23.3 31.8 41.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 20.8 24.8 33.8 77.9 40.7 39.0 21.0 29.6 39.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 25.3 30.6 57.5 84.4 42.0 39.8 25.4 35.5 47.1 29 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 22.2 28.5 41.1 83.2 43.0 41.2 23.8 32.0 41.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 18.6 21.2 32.0 74.6 38.3 37.6 18.8 27.3 37.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 19.7 24.6 37.8 80.7 41.9 39.8 20.5 28.6 38.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 31.1 36.9 45.9 84.4 43.7 41.8 31.9 39.8 48.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 23.3 29.0 41.6 82.5 42.9 41.4 23.9 33.0 43.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 29.5 23.3 42.6 89.7 46.9 43.7 16.8 24.8 34.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 34.0 25.6 39.0 81.8 43.7 41.8 20.3 29.0 39.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 16.9 20.0 37.6 76.1 35.8 36.5 18.6 27.0 36.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 37.7 47.8 54.8 87.5 45.5 42.7 38.6 51.4 66.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 17.9 21.8 33.2 78.0 41.3 39.6 17.8 26.1 35.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------