***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.01.2019.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 5.9 5.7 5.4 2.1 68.6 64.0 1.7 3.6 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 5.5 5.1 5.2 2.0 67.0 63.5 1.6 3.4 5.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 7.1 7.0 6.0 2.3 69.8 64.9 2.4 4.5 6.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 2.1 2.1 2.7 2.2 69.7 64.4 -2.8 -0.5 1.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 7.0 6.9 4.0 2.2 69.9 64.6 2.8 4.6 6.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 6.2 6.0 3.2 2.0 67.9 63.6 2.4 4.1 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 5.1 4.6 5.0 1.8 66.0 62.8 1.2 2.9 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 0.7 0.5 3.5 1.9 67.9 63.5 -2.9 -1.3 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 30 70 100 7.6 7.5 4.9 2.3 70.0 64.5 3.2 5.2 7.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 33 67 100 6.7 6.5 4.2 2.1 68.5 63.6 2.7 4.5 6.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 7.1 7.0 4.0 2.2 69.7 64.6 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 7.0 7.0 3.9 2.0 69.2 64.4 2.8 4.8 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 32 68 100 6.8 6.5 3.2 1.7 66.6 62.9 3.0 4.8 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 7.8 7.5 5.5 2.2 68.4 63.6 2.7 5.0 7.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 6.1 5.9 3.4 2.2 69.0 64.1 1.3 3.5 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 7.6 7.5 3.6 2.1 69.1 64.3 3.4 5.3 7.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 4.8 4.4 5.1 1.8 66.0 62.7 1.2 2.9 4.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 4.7 4.6 4.5 2.0 67.9 63.3 1.7 3.1 4.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 6.1 5.8 5.6 2.1 68.1 64.2 1.6 3.6 5.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 4.1 3.4 2.2 1.4 63.7 61.1 0.0 1.9 3.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 7.1 7.0 5.4 2.3 69.9 64.5 2.9 4.8 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 5.7 5.5 5.3 1.9 66.8 63.4 1.8 3.6 5.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 5.7 5.5 6.1 2.3 69.3 64.7 1.6 3.4 5.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.2 5.4 2.2 69.1 64.0 2.8 4.9 6.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 5.4 5.3 3.7 1.9 67.8 63.2 1.8 3.5 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 6.0 5.7 2.8 1.5 65.7 62.5 2.7 4.3 5.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 6.6 6.3 4.7 1.9 67.5 63.1 2.4 4.3 6.1 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 7.3 7.3 3.2 2.4 70.1 64.7 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 4.2 3.8 3.7 1.7 66.0 62.4 0.0 2.0 3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 5.5 5.0 5.2 2.0 67.6 63.9 1.4 3.2 4.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------