***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-27.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 5.2 5.2 4.6 1.5 67.7 64.7 2.8 3.9 5.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 4.8 4.7 4.8 1.6 67.9 65.2 2.1 3.4 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 6.1 6.0 5.2 1.6 68.1 65.1 3.5 4.7 5.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 0.6 1.2 1.5 1.1 62.9 60.2 -1.1 0.2 1.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 4.9 5.3 2.7 1.0 62.5 60.2 3.3 4.5 5.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.5 4.6 1.4 0.5 56.7 55.5 3.1 4.2 5.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 4.4 4.2 4.6 1.5 66.9 64.3 1.8 3.0 4.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -0.2 -0.1 2.0 0.5 57.7 56.2 -1.6 -0.6 0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 6.6 6.4 3.9 1.3 66.0 62.9 4.0 5.3 6.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 4.8 5.0 2.8 0.8 60.0 58.1 3.3 4.4 5.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 5.0 5.4 2.9 1.0 62.2 60.0 3.5 4.6 5.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 5.4 5.7 2.5 0.8 60.3 58.5 3.9 5.0 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 4.9 4.9 2.2 0.5 56.8 55.8 3.4 4.5 5.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.4 4.8 1.4 66.6 63.4 3.8 5.2 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 5.5 5.5 3.0 1.5 67.9 64.3 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 5.5 5.8 2.2 0.8 59.8 58.1 3.9 5.1 6.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 4.2 4.1 4.6 1.5 67.5 64.9 1.7 2.9 4.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 3.1 3.2 2.8 0.7 59.5 57.6 2.0 2.8 3.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.1 5.0 1.7 68.6 65.8 2.5 3.7 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 52.3 52.0 0.7 1.7 2.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 6.2 6.0 4.6 1.4 66.7 63.7 3.6 4.8 6.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 5.1 5.0 4.9 1.6 68.3 65.8 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 32 68 100 5.0 5.0 5.4 1.7 69.5 66.3 2.4 3.6 4.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 6.9 6.6 4.4 1.2 64.9 62.0 4.2 5.5 6.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 4.0 4.5 3.0 1.1 63.8 61.2 2.5 3.6 4.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 4.6 4.5 1.4 0.2 53.5 53.4 3.3 4.3 5.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 5.7 5.5 4.0 1.2 65.1 62.5 3.2 4.4 5.6 29 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 5.2 5.9 2.2 1.2 64.4 61.4 3.2 4.7 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 2.8 2.8 2.1 0.5 57.0 55.7 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 4.6 4.5 4.7 1.6 67.7 65.0 2.0 3.3 4.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------