***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.12.2018.-06.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 8.5 7.2 8.2 71.9 52.7 47.0 3.4 6.6 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.4 5.6 5.6 57.5 46.3 41.6 3.3 6.4 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 12.1 10.4 8.5 74.1 52.7 46.6 5.1 9.5 15.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 7.2 15.3 13.5 104.6 64.1 52.0 7.0 11.0 16.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 12.5 16.5 15.8 118.5 68.9 60.6 6.9 10.7 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 9.5 15.7 16.6 139.1 75.3 64.5 4.8 8.0 12.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 9.0 6.6 5.6 59.2 47.3 42.7 3.8 7.2 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.3 22.1 17.4 126.4 71.0 62.3 9.2 14.0 19.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 10.1 12.2 13.3 105.4 64.2 56.3 5.2 8.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 11.1 16.8 18.1 129.7 72.2 64.1 5.6 9.4 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 10.7 14.8 16.1 121.2 69.7 60.4 5.7 9.1 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.4 15.5 14.4 115.5 67.7 57.9 4.9 9.0 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.5 18.5 18.9 135.0 74.1 65.2 5.7 9.7 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.8 12.5 91.3 58.9 51.5 6.2 11.3 18.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 3.2 9.4 8.8 78.6 56.3 37.7 3.8 7.6 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 9.9 13.9 15.4 118.2 68.7 59.2 4.6 8.2 12.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 8.5 5.3 5.1 56.2 45.3 40.6 3.3 6.3 10.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 14.2 15.3 17.8 126.8 71.5 63.9 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.7 6.8 6.1 59.5 46.9 41.8 4.0 7.5 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 11.8 16.6 18.8 121.4 69.3 62.1 5.9 10.0 15.3 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 11.3 11.6 10.8 88.1 57.7 50.8 5.4 9.3 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.2 5.0 5.5 55.4 45.1 40.7 3.0 6.1 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.1 7.8 7.2 66.4 49.5 43.4 4.5 7.9 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 12.0 14.8 13.8 105.5 64.1 56.4 5.1 9.6 15.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 10.9 13.2 13.2 99.6 62.9 56.1 4.7 8.8 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 14.7 17.2 16.8 138.7 74.9 64.7 4.9 8.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 9.3 9.2 10.1 83.2 57.1 51.1 3.5 7.1 12.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 4.7 11.9 11.7 98.6 62.4 47.2 4.7 8.3 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 22.2 23.8 18.2 126.8 71.4 63.8 7.2 12.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.9 6.6 6.1 59.9 47.3 42.5 4.0 7.2 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------