***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.01.2019.-13.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.3 5.3 12.1 108.9 66.1 57.3 1.9 3.4 5.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 5.0 6.8 10.5 114.0 68.0 56.4 1.8 3.6 6.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.4 5.8 10.7 97.3 61.7 53.3 2.2 4.1 6.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 4.6 5.4 13.0 98.0 61.9 54.2 2.1 3.8 6.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 6.4 6.2 11.4 88.8 57.7 49.4 2.7 4.9 7.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.4 10.8 92.2 59.4 50.2 2.3 4.6 7.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 4.9 7.3 11.3 125.0 71.3 59.3 1.7 3.5 6.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 3.3 8.7 14.1 108.8 65.0 54.8 3.0 5.5 9.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 4.9 5.2 12.6 97.3 60.8 53.2 2.0 3.8 6.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 2.6 6.3 12.1 92.6 59.0 51.0 2.2 4.6 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.2 5.7 12.1 96.0 60.2 51.7 1.8 3.9 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 6.0 7.3 13.3 108.8 65.1 55.3 2.2 4.4 7.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 6.0 6.3 11.9 95.2 60.5 51.5 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.7 12.7 95.7 60.9 53.7 2.9 5.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 4.9 5.3 11.5 92.9 60.8 52.3 2.0 3.8 6.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 5.3 6.2 12.5 102.2 63.1 54.0 1.9 3.9 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 5.0 8.2 11.6 130.6 72.9 60.3 1.8 3.6 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.4 13.6 99.8 61.9 54.0 2.5 4.5 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 5.5 6.4 10.2 105.0 64.9 54.4 2.4 4.2 6.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 7.2 10.2 20.5 119.9 69.3 56.9 2.3 4.9 9.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 5.5 6.3 12.5 100.5 62.3 55.2 2.1 4.2 7.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 5.7 7.5 10.8 115.3 68.4 56.5 2.4 4.3 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.2 10.5 96.2 61.2 52.8 1.9 3.6 6.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.4 12.3 95.2 60.4 53.5 2.9 4.8 7.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 5.3 6.2 13.1 101.0 62.7 54.9 2.1 4.1 6.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.1 4.9 11.2 90.7 57.9 48.9 1.9 3.8 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 4.6 5.9 12.8 110.2 66.4 57.7 1.8 3.5 5.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 4.5 4.7 11.4 93.0 60.4 51.1 1.9 3.4 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.0 10.4 15.7 106.4 64.2 54.9 3.7 6.8 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 4.7 6.0 10.5 109.9 66.6 55.6 1.8 3.4 5.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------