***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.12.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.01.2019.-20.01.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 8.2 8.2 14.2 120.3 69.7 59.4 2.0 4.2 7.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 8.2 9.3 13.4 134.5 73.9 61.4 2.0 4.1 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.2 10.9 14.3 123.2 70.5 59.4 2.4 5.1 9.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 9.9 11.5 13.6 103.9 63.7 53.4 3.9 7.4 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.2 8.3 13.6 101.9 62.5 53.7 2.5 5.2 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.3 11.3 94.4 59.9 50.7 2.0 3.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 6.7 7.4 13.2 134.9 74.0 61.4 1.9 3.5 5.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 11.1 13.2 14.9 103.8 63.6 54.6 4.0 8.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.9 15.2 110.4 65.9 57.5 2.0 4.1 6.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 6.6 8.1 15.4 108.2 65.1 56.4 2.4 4.8 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.3 6.2 13.0 101.8 62.5 54.4 1.8 3.8 6.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 5.1 5.8 12.8 99.7 61.9 53.8 2.3 4.0 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.2 5.7 12.7 99.5 61.9 53.6 1.8 3.7 6.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 8.8 12.5 17.1 121.9 70.0 58.0 3.4 6.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 6.7 8.0 13.0 104.4 64.9 51.9 2.5 4.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 5.2 5.8 12.4 100.2 62.0 53.7 1.7 3.7 6.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 7.1 7.8 13.2 139.4 75.2 62.8 1.9 3.5 5.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.4 17.2 115.3 67.7 57.5 3.0 5.6 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 6.5 11.3 13.7 132.2 73.3 60.8 2.0 4.5 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.8 8.9 22.7 114.3 67.6 56.1 2.8 5.2 8.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.3 8.3 14.7 112.2 66.6 57.1 2.3 4.6 8.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 10.2 11.1 13.5 135.2 74.1 62.5 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 6.5 10.7 14.6 129.5 72.5 59.5 2.1 4.6 8.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.4 10.1 16.0 118.4 68.8 57.8 2.7 5.3 9.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 6.3 8.1 15.0 110.6 66.2 56.4 2.1 4.5 8.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.7 4.2 12.8 100.3 62.3 52.7 1.6 2.9 4.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 5.6 7.9 14.5 116.7 68.5 58.5 2.0 4.1 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.6 7.2 12.2 100.3 62.7 51.7 2.4 4.7 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 11.0 14.6 19.0 116.6 68.2 56.9 4.1 8.0 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 8.4 9.2 13.6 130.4 72.8 60.5 1.9 4.0 7.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------